Fantasy Football News 2014/15

HacheMan · Jul 15, 2014

[h=1]Five fantasy players on the rise[/h][h=3]Montee Ball among five players with limited production who could break out[/h]By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider

One important consideration for any NFL fantasy draft is finding value. There are always players who didn't produce the previous season due to scheme fit, injuries or other reasons, but who are poised to have better seasons the following year.
Here are five players who have lacked huge production so far, but who merit increased fantasy consideration based off their talent and other traits.

1. Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos

Like Rashad Jennings and especially Toby Gerhart (two other names players who just missed the list), Ball's volume of touches should increase dramatically due to a change of surrounding talent. But unlike Jennings and Gerhart, Ball doesn't only have volume going for him, but he also has an elite situation as a running back in Denver's superb offense.
Knowshon Moreno thrived last year running against extremely favorable defensive personnel groupings, which Ball should simply abuse with his downhill running style. With Peyton Manning behind center consistently putting the Broncos' offense in the right play call depending on what he reads from the defense, there is no reason that Ball shouldn't also benefit from such favorable looks.
But here is the kicker: Ball should be running behind a substantially better offensive line with a healthy Ryan Clady at left tackle and he is a better ball carrier than Moreno. Ball isn't an elite talent, but he looked very good down the stretch last year when given the chance. Is he as good of a receiver as Moreno? Probably not, but he won't be a fantasy liability in that department and should be an every-down running back. Eclipsing the nearly 1,600 total yards that Moreno produced last year should be no problem if Ball plays all 16 games.<OFFER></OFFER>
Manning and the Broncos obviously trust Ball and are ready to give him a ton of touches; otherwise they would have brought in competition or re-signed Moreno. Ball won't come cheap in your fantasy draft, but to me, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson and probably Jamaal Charles are the only other running backs that I would easily take over Ball, and I am still on the fence comparing him with Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy. He is a potential top-six overall pick who I think should get double-digit touchdowns. Note: Make sure you secure C.J. Anderson as Ball's handcuff even if you have to overpay to do so.

2. Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions
The Lions gave Bell a substantial multiyear contract (three years, $9.3 million) by running back standards to secure his services. They have an outstanding passing game that has added Golden Tate and Eric Ebron this offseason, and also boast a very good (and underrated) offensive line. This has been a pass-happy offense, and while Bell is an excellent receiving option for a running back of his size, the percentage of passes called in this offense is likely to go down with Joe Lombardi taking over as offensive coordinator. Lombardi comes from New Orleans, where the Saints were notorious for being a running back-by-committee attack, often using three RBs. Reggie Bush could easily fall back into the Darren Sproles (or Reggie Bush in New Orleans) role, with Bell handling the bulk of the work and all the short-yardage and goal-line duties.

Bell is a very solid all-around football player in a better situation than many might realize. Bush has a bit of an injury history, and if he goes down, Bell becomes a must-start RB1 every week that Bush is out. One thing to monitor here is the usage of 2013 sixth-round pick Theo Riddick in the preseason.

3. Lance Dunbar, RB, Dallas Cowboys
As discussed with the Lions' OC situation above, the Cowboys now have Scott Linehan in charge of their offense, which when considering their miserable defense, should result in a very high number of passes from the Dallas offense. DeMarco Murray is a fine receiver, but Dunbar is more of the Reggie Bush-type in this backfield.

A very short running back but with good thickness for his size (5-foot-8, 195 pounds), Dunbar has only 51 career carries, but he has shown big-play ability in those opportunities. The Cowboys' offense is loaded with a great young offensive line, plenty of receiving weapons and what should be a very good run game. Dunbar won't be a featured member of this attack, but should be a consistent producer who could explode if Murray went down. Plus, Linehan has a strong history of using more than one running back, which bodes well for Dunbar.

Pick him up late in your drafts on the cheap, and if you picked Murray (whom I am also extremely high on this season) earlier, make sure you nab Dunbar as his handcuff. Note: It's important to see him show in preseason that he is over the knee injury that landed him on injured reserve to finish out the 2013 season.

4. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns
Even though the Bengals had plenty of cap room and lack another true slot receiver, they unwisely allowed Hawkins to leave for the divisional rival Browns. With Josh Gordon's issues, the Browns really need someone to throw the football to.

Cleveland should be improved at the quarterback position and run game, and it features one of the league's best offensive lines. Hawkins isn't a big receiver and might not get into the end zone more than a handful of times, but he should garner a ton of targets and could quickly become one of Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel's most trusted wideouts. He is also very good after the catch, which can't be said for many of Cleveland's current pass-catchers.

The Bengals underused Hawkins, but I highly doubt the Browns will make the same mistake. Hawkins has more value in PPR leagues than standard ones, but he still should be a consistent player who could be startable through the bye-week gauntlet or if you get in a bind with injuries at wide receiver. Best of all, Hawkins will cost you next to nothing on draft day.

5. Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints
Stills was one of the most efficient receivers in the league last season. When he got opportunities, he capitalized on them in a big way. Not only was he a great deep threat in the Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem role in Sean Payton's offense, but he also grabbed a hold of some of the intermediate and chain-moving work that Lance Moore has done over the years. Simply put, the 22-year-old Stills has much more all-around skill than just pure downfield burners such as Henderson and Meachem to go along with very reliable hands and some after-the-catch ability for the shorter routes.

Drew Brees trusts this young receiver. With Moore and Sproles out and first-round pick Brandin Cooks in, the Saints' offense should look a little different, but more potent and versatile than it has been over the past few seasons. Stills might be a little up-and-down on a weekly basis, as there are a lot of mouths to feed in New Orleans' passing attack, but his big-play potential and ability to improve should override that, especially as the season goes along. I like Stills better for dynasty leagues than re-draft ones, but it is hard to ignore how productive he has been when he has been given the opportunity, and we know that Brees isn't picky about whom he distributes the football to.
Honorable mentions: Le'Veon Bell, Knile Davis, Andre Ellington, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Stevan Ridley, Mike Wallace, Terrance Williams

HacheMan · Jul 15, 2014

Finding the next stud running back

Part 1 of 5: How to find the next stud running back

I can't tell much about a running back from his top-line stats, such as yards and touchdowns. I need to see him play. But what do I look for?

My goal with this piece is to give you an evaluation tool kit so that when you watch new rushers (or old rushers in new roles), you'll have an objective way to come to your own conclusions, ones that don't get blinded by the box score. Nobody is claiming that this is rocket science, but I find it helps to have a concrete checklist when I watch RB tape:

1. Defenders take weird angles: We all want RBs whose speed translates to game action, but how do we know when that's happening? Yes, if a guy outruns everyone and never gets touched, that's a good hint he's fast; then again, some long runs are the result of a defensive breakdown, and it only looks like the back is a burner. So I also take note when defenders consistently take bad angles trying to make a tackle on a RB.

For instance, one thing that impressed me about Doug Martin in the early games of his rookie season was how frequently linebackers and defensive backs thought they had Martin lined up, only to make a glancing blow.

One of the reasons I bit on David Wilson is I thought he had that same ability, though his health and fumbling have been problematic. Andre Ellington showed a ton of this on tape last year, too.

2. Defenders look silly in the hole: I hear the term "short-area burst" a lot, but how do you know whether you're seeing it?

When defenders get into the hole, only to whiff or get partial contact on a RB, we all know it's a legit sign of short-area burst. If a RB consistently creates such reactions, it's a good bet that he's got above-average feet and knows where he wants to go. Something that gets lost in LeSean McCoy's crazy raw talent is how decisive he is pressing the hole; for as quickly as he can change direction, you don't see him jump-stop very often. In most cases, the halting jump-step is a great RB's enemy.

It's also illustrative to see a defender in good tackling position in the hole who winds up bouncing backward after contact with a RB. That's another manifestation of short-area burst: power. I especially love seeing a (relatively) smaller back winning such collisions. Martin was awesome at this in '12, which is one of the reasons he got compared to similarly sized Ray Rice so frequently.

3. First contact doesn't bring a RB down: Backs who consistently beat first contact can later become that most valuable of fantasy assets: the goal-line back. I like to see repeated cases of powering through contact in all situations. Alfred Morris and Rashad Jennings made their early cases as fantasy stars this way, and it's why I continue to be intrigued by Chris Ivory.

This is also one reason to be interested in Toby Gerhart. Gerhart has established himself as a legit power back who in his career has made up for poor line play to create something from nothing. He'll need to continue that trend in Jacksonville, where blocking has been suspect.

4. Open-field quickness: Nearly any pro RB can appear quick on any single play. They're NFL athletes. They're the best of the best. What we want to find are the guys whose consistent quickness can't be ignored.

Shorter and/or lighter backs are likely to become fantasy stars only if they're impossibly quick, as in, you can't miss it. The reason I didn't fall for Bobby Rainey last year was I watched his tape. Rainey had nice acceleration and long-distance speed, but even in his breakout Week 11, he didn't accomplish much in traffic. If a smaller RB doesn't instantly remind you of a darting Jamaal Charles or Giovani Bernard in the open field, be skeptical of the "elite quickness" that game announcers claim he has.

Quickness in bigger backs can be harder to identify, but it is much-prized. Adrian Peterson is a monster, obviously, but if you could watch every one his carries from the knees down, you'd be astonished how quickly he can change direction. Darren McFadden has tempted scouts for years because of his quickness at 6-foot-1 and 220-plus pounds. And Zac Stacy channeled his inner Frank Gore as a rookie; nobody will ever mistake Stacy for Charles, but he regularly got to defenses' second level and made linebackers miss through sheer single-cut elusiveness.

Coming Next: How to tell when great RB box score production is a lie

HacheMan · Jul 15, 2014

Ten players critical to 2014 success

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

It's not hard to rank Adrian Peterson.

If AP stays healthy in 2014, he's almost certainly going to give you first-round value. After all, the guy has never failed to score double-digit TDs in his seven professional seasons and has landed you fewer than 1,400 total yards exactly once. That relative safety (injuries notwithstanding) is what makes him the No. 1 player in standard-scoring fantasy leagues.

But safety runs on a spectrum, and risk is the fantasy owner's milieu. It would be great if each one of your draft picks this summer could feel as safe as Peterson does, but history tells us that drafting the safest team doesn't always give you the best team. When you're on the hunt for value, you usually have to take chances. That's where this column comes in.

Fortunes will rise and fall in '14 based on how the risky guys perform. If you wind up taking a chance on NFL players about whom opinions are mixed, and you wind up being correct, you're in great shape. If you gamble on risky guys and lose, you're toast.

Here, then, are 10 pivot-point players who could cause fantasy squads to soar or crater. My ranks for the upcoming season will sink or swim in great measure based on how accurately I've got these 10 guys pegged:

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: Brady is actually outside some folks' top-10 QBs this year, and they're not necessarily crazy. After all, he finished an excruciating 13th in QB fantasy points last year, and his weapons are basically the same. I know there's chatter about how Brady lost something off his deep ball at 36 years old (he's 37 in August), but I don't see much difference in his game tape. He's still got above-average arm strength and preternatural pocket awareness, and he's still best when he fires quickly. His problem last year was finding players who got open quickly, and unfortunately unless you think Aaron Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins is ready to make a leap or Danny Amendola is ready to stay healthy, this is basically the same WR group. That said, I still find myself in the "believer" camp. I have Brady only 10th in my QB ranks, but it feels weird, and I can see him bouncing back (especially if his tight end is healthy; more on that in a bit). If you take Brady late, you might wind up reaping big rewards.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins: Which RG III are you getting in '14? Are you getting the rookie who submitted an all-time top-10 season for QB rushing yards in '12? Or are you getting the guy who was exposed as a merely so-so pocket player when his running game was minimized in '13? Yes, Griffin will be 18 months removed from his torn right ACL when the season begins, so maybe there's a temptation to forget last season. But recall also that Jay Gruden is RG III's new playcaller, and Gruden likes to throw the ball. Will there be enough option looks for Griffin to rack up rushing yards? Will RG III be gun-shy about taking off? The rose-colored view of this situation says that this guy is healthy again, was fantasy's No. 6 QB as a rookie and now has DeSean Jackson around as a deep threat. The pessimist's view is that when he had to throw more and run less in '13, he posted an underwhelming 16 TDs and 12 INTs.

Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos: Everyone who thinks Ball is a slam-dunk first-round pick, I ask you this: Can you name a player who had a worse rookie year and then was a no-doubt first-rounder as a soph? Ball is more talented than Knowshon Moreno, and he should've blown Moreno out of the water last summer. He was supposed to be so pro-ready, and yet he fumbled and whiffed on blocks and looked meh running the ball. So now Moreno has moved on, and Ball has the inside track to a job that made Moreno the No. 5 RB in fantasy last year. He could absolutely repeat this performance, but how sure are you? Does it usually work out well when we draft not the players themselves, but rather their roles? I've bumped Ball up to the No. 10 spot in my RB ranks, so I guess I'm all aboard the hype train. But I acknowledge it could derail.

Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Speaking of derailing ... T-Rich finished 11th among fantasy RBs as a rookie and was traded to an offense where Andrew Luck throws darts, and he flamed out. Those of us who believed in Richardson (my hand is raised) could only make excuses. "The blocking was bad!" "He didn't know the playbook!" "The sun was in his eyes!" But the Colts have doubled down on Richardson, failing to add meaningful backfield competition, and hoping that Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw can return from season-ending injuries to fill out their RB depth chart. I look back on T-Rich's rookie tape and see a player with acceleration that belies his 225 pounds. I also see an Indy offense that should generate a bunch of TDs. Plus, this is a kid who caught 51 passes in '12. There's a realistic chance he produces a top-10 season. But taking the chance of drafting him to start for your fantasy team -- especially if you had him last year -- is terrifying.

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Maybe Rice's dilemma is more explicable than Richardson's. Rice has played six NFL seasons, and since '09 has the league's second-most touches from scrimmage (behind only Chris Johnson). Last year, after being a consensus top-five selection in all fantasy drafts, Rice averaged 3.1 yards per carry and found the end zone just four times. Perhaps he is simply worn down by age 27, which wouldn't be unprecedented; Willie Parker, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai and Larry Johnson are just a handful of guys who saw their candles burn out similarly early. But what an allure Rice still has, even if he'll probably be suspended for off-field transgressions to start the season. He could still bounce back to double-digit TD production, and he's been a great bet for 50-plus catches. We're either looking at the beginning of the end or the Comeback Player of the Year.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Discussing Montee Ball above, I wondered whether it's wise to draft a presumed role, rather than a player's actual skills. That's relevant when it comes to Gerhart too. Any defense of drafting him in '14 begins with the statement, "Well, the Jags gave him a lot of money and don't have anybody else!" What a ringing endorsement! On tape, Gerhart has never struck me as a "special" player. He's slippery for his size, but he takes too much time to get underway. So trusting him comes down to hoping for extreme volume and lots of goal-line work, putting him in the Michael Turner or Peyton Hillis category. (You'll also hear Gerhart's defenders say he's adept at catching it, but if Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson are the other veteran alternatives, aren't they more likely to be the pass catchers? Otherwise, when will they ever play?) Could lightning strike Gerhart the way it once did Hillis? I suppose. But the Jags generated only 12 RB carries inside an opponent's 5 last year. I have a tough time imagining a bunch of bunny TDs for Gerhart.

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks: My Twitter follower @XFu84 asks this question: "At what point are you guys going to stop loving a WR who hasn't gone over 1,000 yards in a season in five tries?" And I'll add to the mix: Harvin also hasn't ever scored more than eight TDs and he toils for the run-heaviest offense in the NFL. But then I watch Harvin's tape, and I think I've exercised restraint in ranking him "only" 19th in my WR ranks. I honestly don't believe Harvin's talent has an analog in today's pro football. It's not just that he's insanely quick with blinding straight-ahead speed; it's that he has these moves in a (smallish) running back's body. Harvin is a 200-pound player who, when he runs, looks like Antonio Brown (who tips the scales at 180). I recently went back to look at Harvin's tape for a recent edition of the Fantasy Underground podcast, and was amazed at how many times he just barrels over defenders. And yet, as much of a Harvin apologist as I am, even I have to admit he's been injury-prone and doesn't find himself in a top-notch fantasy situation. If he's finally able to put together a great year, it will come at a discount for his owners.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings. Patterson, on the other hand, will not come at a discount. Everyone seems to expect the world from him. At a loaded position, he's currently a top-25 WR draftee, making him a seventh-round draft pick, ahead of more proven commodities like Torrey Smith, Julian Edelman, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston and Emmanuel Sanders. That's surprising. But Patterson did produce some wonderful highlights in his rookie season, scoring seven TDs from scrimmage and nine all together (with six of those coming from Week 13 forward). The cautionary tale about Patterson is that he hasn't proved he can run routes yet. His 4.0 yards-at-the-catch average in '13 was 83rd among 84 qualified WRs, meaning he basically caught screens. The pessimist would say a player of this type will regress to the mean if he can't get open down the field. The optimist would say he's entering only his second year and Norv Turner (his new coordinator in Minny) has a good history of helping physical freaks reach their potential (see also: Josh Gordon).

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: If everybody's so excited about Chip Kelly and Nick Foles and a high-volume offense that will create a greater-than-average number of opportunities for Philly's weapons, perhaps they should be more excited about Maclin too. With DeSean Jackson in D.C., Maclin has a chance to become a clear No. 1 receiving weapon in a high-octane situation. Unfortunately he, like Harvin, has never eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving and has struggled with injuries, including the torn left ACL that cost him all of '13. I'm not a believer in Riley Cooper, and while Jordan Matthews has lots of potential, it's tough for a rookie wideout to instantly morph into a No. 1. So the Iggles need Maclin pretty badly. That means he has as much upside as just about any WR in fantasy. But he could also get injured at any moment.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Gronk might literally be the single most important non-QB in the NFL. I'm not trying to tell you that he has appreciably better receiving skills than Jimmy Graham, but he's certainly a better blocker, and he's on a team that probably needs his services more. In the six-game stretch when Gronk was finally healthy in '13, he was great and perhaps more important, Tom Brady showed signs of life. Alas, Gronkowski tore his right ACL in Week 14, and for the second straight season, he will race against the clock to be ready for Week 1. Last year, he didn't play until Oct. 20, making his fifth-round average draft position look bad. And yet here we are again, and Gronk is currently going early in the fourth. That means he won't come at a discount, but if you strike it rich with him for a full 16 games, he could make your year.

HacheMan · Jul 16, 2014

[h=1]Five fantasy players on the decline[/h][h=3]Darren Sproles, Marshawn Lynch among players to avoid in 2014[/h]By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider

There are many things one has to consider during a fantasy draft, but getting value should be high on the list. Players who had big years the previous season might not be as productive the following one for a variety of reasons, including injuries, scheme fit or a new offensive coordinator.
Here are five fantasy players who have been productive in the past, but aren't worth betting on in fantasy this season:

Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Many fantasy players seem to be very excited about what Sproles could do in Chip Kelly's offense. And while I applaud the Eagles for adding Sproles, I expect him to be much more valuable in the real NFL than he will be in fantasy.
Sproles is 31 years old and is a player who is dependent on speed and rare quickness. Well, those skills are declining, and even though the Eagles run a high number of plays on offense, Sproles is unlikely to ever be a featured part of that attack.<OFFER></OFFER>
Even if LeSean McCoy went down, Sproles most likely would remain a satellite option with Chris Polk taking over the lead role for carries. Sproles has never had more than 93 rushing attempts in his eight seasons and has been handed the ball only 101 times over the past two seasons. He's also very unlikely to get short-yardage touchdowns and is reliant on a high number of receptions and long touchdowns to be a fantasy starter on a weekly basis. The Sproles-to-Philadelphia angle is intriguing, but when you break it down, he isn't all that likely to really help your team, especially in a standard scoring league.

Anquan Boldin, WR, San Francisco 49ers
In his first season in San Francisco, Boldin was a solid fantasy asset and Jim Harbaugh's favorite receiver due to his reliability, toughness, blocking in the run game and ability to grab contested passes. But while the 49ers' passing percentage might increase going forward as Colin Kaepernick comes into his own, Boldin will now have Michael Crabtree (back from injury) and Steve Johnson competing for targets. And while Boldin is a master of making the contested catch, he will really have to excel this season at making tough catches since he greatly struggles to get consistent separation. Boldin's role in this offense, and especially his number of targets, is bound to diminish.

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton threw the eighth most attempts in the league last season (586). Is that going to continue with a new offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson, calling the plays? I tend to think not, as Dalton is clearly more of a "game manager" quarterback, a guy who needs a strong defense and running back to lean on. Asking Dalton to attempt a lot of passes isn't a great idea, even if he is throwing to A.J. Green and the emerging Marvin Jones, Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert.
Dalton could easily conceivably cut his passing attempt total from a year ago by 100 attempts, which should in turn cut down on his 20 interceptions and put more of the onus of this offense -- and the bulk of its fantasy production -- on Bernard and 2014 second-round pick Jeremy Hill. Dalton has put up better fantasy numbers than his NFL ability suggests. For me, those types of players are always ones to avoid in fantasy.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I love the way Lynch plays the game as much as anyone and his on-field value remains significant. But it is highly unlikely he finds his way onto my redraft team this season. Lynch is a volume runner with a ton of recent wear and tear on his body. He has over 1,000 rushing attempts the past three seasons and doesn't offer a lot as a receiver.
Fumbling has also become an issue for Lynch over the past two seasons, and Seattle's offensive line simply isn't that good. Surely, Lynch will remain Seattle's lead back, but Christine Michael's power and explosiveness leap off the screen. He needs more touches.
It might be wise for the Seahawks to conserve Lynch for late in the season (and especially the playoffs) more than they have in the past. Also, we shouldn't forget about Robert Turbin, a fine back in his own right. Lastly, the Seahawks' offseason moves suggest that they might be willing to put more on Russell Wilson's plate in the passing game. Expect Seattle's percentage of pass plays called to go up in 2014.

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
This one seems rather obvious, especially given what we saw from Rice last season and his looming suspension this year. However, with Gary Kubiak and his zone-blocking scheme now in Baltimore, as well as with an improved O-line and a more powerful passing game, some might look to nab Rice on the cheap after his down season.
Rice was apparently playing much of last year with a leg injury, which I don't doubt after watching him on tape, but he still posted only two truly relevant fantasy games in 2013. Altogether, he demonstrated diminished burst, power and balance. Rice is a better player than what we saw last year. It's possible that losing some weight this offseason will help him regain some burst and breakaway ability, but knowing the workload he's sustained in college and at the NFL level, and having seen what we saw last year, I will be passing on Rice at any point close to his current ADP (which is still amazingly in the sixth round). I doubt I would touch him until Round 10.

Honorable mentions: Marques Colston, Riley Cooper, Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno

swirv · Jul 17, 2014

Hache Man said:
Five fantasy players on the decline

Darren Sproles, Marshawn Lynch among players to avoid in 2014

By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider

There are many things one has to consider during a fantasy draft, but getting value should be high on the list. Players who had big years the previous season might not be as productive the following one for a variety of reasons, including injuries, scheme fit or a new offensive coordinator.
Here are five fantasy players who have been productive in the past, but aren't worth betting on in fantasy this season:

Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Many fantasy players seem to be very excited about what Sproles could do in Chip Kelly's offense. And while I applaud the Eagles for adding Sproles, I expect him to be much more valuable in the real NFL than he will be in fantasy.
Sproles is 31 years old and is a player who is dependent on speed and rare quickness. Well, those skills are declining, and even though the Eagles run a high number of plays on offense, Sproles is unlikely to ever be a featured part of that attack.<offer></offer>
Even if LeSean McCoy went down, Sproles most likely would remain a satellite option with Chris Polk taking over the lead role for carries. Sproles has never had more than 93 rushing attempts in his eight seasons and has been handed the ball only 101 times over the past two seasons. He's also very unlikely to get short-yardage touchdowns and is reliant on a high number of receptions and long touchdowns to be a fantasy starter on a weekly basis. The Sproles-to-Philadelphia angle is intriguing, but when you break it down, he isn't all that likely to really help your team, especially in a standard scoring league.

Anquan Boldin, WR, San Francisco 49ers
In his first season in San Francisco, Boldin was a solid fantasy asset and Jim Harbaugh's favorite receiver due to his reliability, toughness, blocking in the run game and ability to grab contested passes. But while the 49ers' passing percentage might increase going forward as Colin Kaepernick comes into his own, Boldin will now have Michael Crabtree (back from injury) and Steve Johnson competing for targets. And while Boldin is a master of making the contested catch, he will really have to excel this season at making tough catches since he greatly struggles to get consistent separation. Boldin's role in this offense, and especially his number of targets, is bound to diminish.

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton threw the eighth most attempts in the league last season (586). Is that going to continue with a new offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson, calling the plays? I tend to think not, as Dalton is clearly more of a "game manager" quarterback, a guy who needs a strong defense and running back to lean on. Asking Dalton to attempt a lot of passes isn't a great idea, even if he is throwing to A.J. Green and the emerging Marvin Jones, Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert.
Dalton could easily conceivably cut his passing attempt total from a year ago by 100 attempts, which should in turn cut down on his 20 interceptions and put more of the onus of this offense -- and the bulk of its fantasy production -- on Bernard and 2014 second-round pick Jeremy Hill. Dalton has put up better fantasy numbers than his NFL ability suggests. For me, those types of players are always ones to avoid in fantasy.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I love the way Lynch plays the game as much as anyone and his on-field value remains significant. But it is highly unlikely he finds his way onto my redraft team this season. Lynch is a volume runner with a ton of recent wear and tear on his body. He has over 1,000 rushing attempts the past three seasons and doesn't offer a lot as a receiver.
Fumbling has also become an issue for Lynch over the past two seasons, and Seattle's offensive line simply isn't that good. Surely, Lynch will remain Seattle's lead back, but Christine Michael's power and explosiveness leap off the screen. He needs more touches.
It might be wise for the Seahawks to conserve Lynch for late in the season (and especially the playoffs) more than they have in the past. Also, we shouldn't forget about Robert Turbin, a fine back in his own right. Lastly, the Seahawks' offseason moves suggest that they might be willing to put more on Russell Wilson's plate in the passing game. Expect Seattle's percentage of pass plays called to go up in 2014.

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
This one seems rather obvious, especially given what we saw from Rice last season and his looming suspension this year. However, with Gary Kubiak and his zone-blocking scheme now in Baltimore, as well as with an improved O-line and a more powerful passing game, some might look to nab Rice on the cheap after his down season.
Rice was apparently playing much of last year with a leg injury, which I don't doubt after watching him on tape, but he still posted only two truly relevant fantasy games in 2013. Altogether, he demonstrated diminished burst, power and balance. Rice is a better player than what we saw last year. It's possible that losing some weight this offseason will help him regain some burst and breakaway ability, but knowing the workload he's sustained in college and at the NFL level, and having seen what we saw last year, I will be passing on Rice at any point close to his current ADP (which is still amazingly in the sixth round). I doubt I would touch him until Round 10.

Honorable mentions: Marques Colston, Riley Cooper, Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno

agreed on all of these. Grabbed that Sproles under from Bovada right after he got traded

HacheMan · Jul 20, 2014

[h=1]10 position battles to monitor[/h][h=3]Giants starting RB and Panthers No. 1 wideout among those fantasy relevant[/h]By Field Yates | ESPN Insider

The hours are dwindling away until the start of NFL training camps, which will kick off with a practice in western New York this Sunday evening for the Buffalo Bills.
We've had all offseason to dissect player movement and hypothesize on potential roles and adjustments from one season to the next.
But ultimately, there's still much to be decided for each of the 32 NFL teams. And these decisions will take place over the next month-plus before the regular season. Depth charts will be stacked, players will be cut -- some of whom will sign elsewhere -- and we'll have a better ability to accurately assess what's in store.
Here's a look at 10 specific roster battles to be settled during training camp, each of which has fantasy relevance to ready you for your upcoming draft.

[h=3]New York Giants running back[/h]
Top candidates: Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, David Wilson
The rundown: We'll start with Wilson, the question mark. The former first-round pick is still seeking medical clearance after neck surgery, with an expected checkup date of July 21. If he isn't cleared, it's a two-man race. If he is, then he adds an explosive talent. For now, let's focus on Jennings, a free-agent signing, and Williams, a fourth-round draft choice. Might this wind up as a shared assignment? It could, but general manager Jerry Reese suggested Jennings could be a workhorse back in a radio interview this summer. One area where Jennings has the decisive edge over Williams is catching the football, as the former BC standout's third-down value is mitigated by poor hands. If Jennings grabs a firm hold of a workhorse job coming out of camp, that has legitimate value in re-draft leagues.

[h=3]Pittsburgh Steelers second wide receiver[/h]
Top candidates: Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant
The rundown: <OFFER>Ben Roethlisberger threw for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2013, both the second-best marks he's posted in his career. He remains among the game's elite QBs, but he lost both Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery from his receiving corps. The Steelers had a tight budget this offseason to retain free agents, but waving goodbye to the veteran duo opens the door to the 2013 draft pick Wheaton and 2014 fourth-rounder Bryant to gobble up a significant portion of that production. Wheaton has the slight experience edge, and while Bryant has savory measurables (he ran a 4.42 40 at the combine while weighing 211 pounds and measuring 6-foot-4), many draft gurus viewed him as a project from a route-running standpoint. Veteran Lance Moore also figures into the equation (with Darrius Heyward-Bey as a longer-shot contributor), but we'd pick Wheaton to hitch our wagons to as the upside play.</OFFER>

[h=3]Carolina Panthers No. 1 wide receiver[/h]
Top candidates: Jerricho Cotchery, Kelvin Benjamin, Jason Avant
The rundown: There's no more wide-open battle for a top receiver job in the NFL after Carolina overhauled the group this offseason. Benjamin is the only player on the Panthers' roster with top receiver physical tools, but he's a big-bodied, raw rookie who may need at least a year to realize his full abilities. Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell finished 42nd and 50th, respectively, in standard scoring last season, so the Panthers' top wideout this year shouldn't be expected to tilt the balance of your league. And while our bet would be on Cotchery emerging as the "top" receiver coming out of camp, Benjamin is the one to closely monitor. The 6-5, 240-pound behemoth is worth a flier in the later rounds of re-draft leagues. Is he a sure thing for 2014? Far from it, but there's a role to be assumed in Carolina and attainable hurdles to climb over for Benjamin.

[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals backup running back[/h]
Top candidates: Jeremy Hill, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
The rundown: Let's pencil in the excitable Giovani Bernard as the starter, with all signs pointing that direction as things stand. And then let's consider the coordinator change in Cincinnati and envision how Hue Jackson will want his offense to look. In 2010, as the Raiders' offensive coordinator, Jackson relied heavily on Darren McFadden as his lead back, but the burly Michael Bush proved valuable, as well. He not only averaged just fewer than 10 carries a game, scored eight touchdowns and was targeted 24 times in the passing game. In goal-to-go situations, Bush was the superior option. Hill, all 233 pounds of him, may be primed to vulture some valuable touches from Bernard in a Bush-to-McFadden-like fashion. That's assuming, of course, he can edge out Green-Ellis for top backup duties. Given Green-Ellis' lack of special teams value and that Hill was a second-round pick, it's hard to envision him staying on the roster purely for depth purposes. With a commitment to the ground game, keep tabs on Hill as August rolls around.

[h=3]Oakland Raiders running back[/h]
Top candidates: Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, Latavius Murray
The rundown: As we've referenced in other running back discussions, shared workloads are becoming more the pattern than the rule. So there are two factors to consider here: How important is the title of starter, and what's the upside given the talent involved? MJD is the lone carrier among the trio whom we'd count on to withstand a full workload, despite his recent injury issues. McFadden is simply too injury-prone to trust, which was also reflected in the fact that his contract this offseason included just $100,000 guaranteed -- is a roster spot a certainty? Murray has the most explosion of the group, but he's raw and inexperienced. Here's our advice: If MJD presents himself as healthy and the projected workhorse, he's worth an investment. If there's no clear-cut starter out of camp, stay away.

[h=3]Atlanta Falcons running back[/h]
Top candidates: Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers, Devonta Freeman
The rundown: The 2013 season quickly flew off the rails in Atlanta, so this isn't a declaration that Jackson was the primary issue. But the 30-year-old averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, fell short of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2004 and lacked the explosion at the point of contact we're accustomed to seeing from him. If Jackson's 2013 was a sign of pending regression, it's time to look at the rest of the backfield. Rodgers is a useful, change-of-pace back, but it's the rookie Freeman who really has us interested. He had a strong offseason, is a capable pass-catcher and packs a lot of power into his 209-pound frame. In what isn't a particularly inspiring running back class, Freeman is a worthwhile rookie investment in dynasty leagues -- and perhaps sooner, as Atlanta is going to need to be explosive offensively to win games. Freeman adds that element.

[h=3]Cleveland Browns perimeter receiver[/h]
Top candidates: Miles Austin, Nate Burleson, Anthony Armstrong
The rundown: There are plenty of wild cards in Cleveland this season, starting with who will be under center. And with Josh Gordon expected to miss a significant portion -- if not all -- of the upcoming season as he faces a possible suspension and other off-field issues, someone has to catch passes from whoever plays QB. Andrew Hawkins will patrol the slot and tight end (or, as he describes himself on Twitter, "pass catcher") Jordan Cameron should continue his high level of play from last season. Austin and Burleson combined for just a single touchdown during injury-plagued 2013 campaigns, but if one or both emerge healthy out of camp, there's no harm in using a late-round flier draft choice on them. Brian Hoyer threw the ball very well in limited duty last year, and we know the Browns are expecting Johnny Manziel to be a capable passing quarterback in this league. Cleveland will be a run-first offense, but keep this spot in mind to flesh out the back end of your roster.

[h=3]Baltimore Ravens backup running back[/h]
Top candidates: Bernard Pierce, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Justin Forsett
The rundown: A suspension for starter and workhorse Ray Rice seems likely, if not imminent. So while this trio is likely to take a backseat to Rice once he's back in action, there's a chance he won't be on the field when the season begins. New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak leaned heavily on a zone-blocking-scheme-based rushing attack in Houston, and he will likely do more of the same in Baltimore. Pierce is the best talent of the group and seems like the strong bet to assume the heavy lifting. He's coming off shoulder surgery and a down 2013, however, which could make this more of a competition.

[h=3]Seattle Seahawks complementary wide receivers[/h]
Top candidates: Doug Baldwin, Paul Richardson, Jermaine Kearse, Sidney Rice
The rundown: Injuries are impossible to project, but given his history, we'd understand those who are cautious about investing in Percy Harvin. So think of this battle as the remaining receivers in Seattle with the potential that one of them could assume a No. 1 role if Harvin is injured, as Golden Tate did last year. Tate (64 catches, 898 yards, five touchdowns) didn't produce at an elite level, but the Seahawks are an efficient passing offense (second in yards per attempt in 2013), and Russell Wilson is only going to improve (watch out, NFL). Richardson has tremendous speed, Baldwin is an underrated target and Kearse produced in clutch spots last year. Rice is a health concern, but he's big and still pretty fast -- that's always relevant. Baldwin is the name worthy of a pick in re-draft leagues. Richardson is the dynasty pickup worth considering.

[h=3]Green Bay Packers tight end[/h]
Top candidates: Richard Rodgers, Andrew Quarless, Colt Lyerla
The rundown: It seems highly unlikely that Jermichael Finley will return to Green Bay as the Packers look prepared to go a different direction at the position. Quarless, a veteran, is a fine player, but he's not explosive enough to get excited about if he winds up being the top tight end. If Rodgers, a third-round rookie from Cal, shows in training camp what he flashed during OTAs (unique athletic ability and a pension for notable grabs), watch out. Yes, it was based off of what he saw while throwing to Rodgers in shorts, but Aaron Rodgers -- his franchise quarterback -- raved about the rookie. At 6-4, 257, Richard Rodgers will be a red zone threat. He could quickly work his way into a fantasy starter at tight end.
The other name that bears mentioning is Lyerla, the former Oregon star who went undrafted after off-field conners. The Packers have taken a flier on the athletic pass-catcher, and while he may be the longest shot of the group, his talent is too significant to ignore.

HacheMan · Jul 21, 2014

[h=1]2014 potential breakouts: quarterbacks

By Eric Karabell | ESPN INSIDER

[/h]

I admit that much of the time when asked about potential breakout fantasy performers -- and this is a perfect week, as August approaches, to discuss it! -- I keep it to running backs and wide receivers. After all, to me those are the key positions where depth is paramount and leagues are generally won and lost. There are so many top-notch quarterbacks to start with -- probably 15 or so capable of being a legitimate starter in a 10- or 12-team standard league -- why bother examining the likes of [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Buffalo Bills[/FONT] sophomore [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]EJ Manuel[/FONT], right? [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Andy Dalton[/FONT] of the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Cincinnati Bengals[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Philip Rivers[/FONT] of the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]San Diego Chargers[/FONT] finished sixth and seventh among all players in [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]standard scoring last season[/FONT], and neither of them is regarded as close to that valuable this year. They're reserves. It's deep!Still, there will be several quarterbacks who do “break out” and become far more relevant than most expected, so while it’s a bit silly to predict the next Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, the standard we’re looking at for these breakout purposes is pretty much precisely what Dalton and Rivers achieved during their tremendous 2013 campaigns. They weren’t highly thought of prior to Week 1, it quickly changed, and now to some degree they’ve been cast aside again. Who replaces them? Good question! While some rookies will break out, I’m disregarding them from consideration. Talk about Johnny Manziel all you like -- and many have -- but what are these guys breaking out from, college? I’m looking for players of various ages who are finally healthy and earning a new opportunity, or something changed around them to affect value. Look for upside, but that doesn’t mean disregarding someone who is 27. Basically, don’t forget some of last season’s popular sleepers, for the ability likely remains.
Let’s separate the breakouts into two classes: First, we have the ones regarded as borderline fantasy starters or obvious backups, as Dalton was last summer. Perhaps one or two take that Dalton/Rivers leap. Then we have quarterbacks who aren’t really regarded much at all, outside the top 20 at the position. For those in deeper formats -- like multi-quarterback ones -- the difference in winning and losing could be a fellow like this. Predicting breakouts at quarterback isn’t like forecasts for the other positions, but we’ll get to running back and wide receiver during the week.
QB breakouts: top-20 version
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: One of my other criteria usually is avoiding players who have already broken out, but RG3 is kind of a special case, no? He was incredible as a rookie, mostly erratic and unpredictable as a still-injured sophomore, and now we should expect health and a sweeter corps of weapons, including the downfield threat he lacked in former Philadelphia Eagles lightning rod DeSean Jackson. Griffin might not get selected as a top-10 quarterback in your league, but the potential is there, if he runs effectively and throws accurately, to be not only among the best in the game, but thebest.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: This looks a lot like the Dalton situation to me. We’ve got a guy with a history of making many a questionable decision and throwing his share of interceptions, now being properly coached by Marc Trestman and blessed with serious options to throw to. Perhaps he’ll start using them deep down the field and take full advantage. Cutler’s lack of durability is another issue, but couldn’t you just see him have that one magical season at some point with 35 touchdown passes? I don’t expect it, but it’s there.
Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He really belongs in the next section, if he belongs at all, but he’s ranked in the staff top 20 and this is a natural confluence of opportunity, recent statistical goodness and exciting weapons in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Do I think McCown, a longtime backup and disappointment, is suddenly a really good quarterback? No, not at all. I do think what he accomplished in brief action filling in for Cutler last season was a small sample size, but it could happen again -- if not for four months of the season, in stages. As a fill-in guy, that might be enough.
QB breakouts: back-end range
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: Sometimes all it takes is a franchise adjustment in philosophy, a new offensive coordinator or head coach to light a fire under a talented player who hasn't shown much. Tannehill enters his third year coming off an under-the-radar 24-touchdown season in which he barely missed 4,000 passing yards. Only 15 quarterbacks scored more standard fantasy points. So why is this guy going after the top 20 quarterbacks? New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor worked with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia's new, exciting offense last season and brings a fresh approach. The line has improved and Tannehill has the skills and weapons to make a Nick Foles-type leap into relevancy. Don't be surprised.
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills: With this second-year man the lure is rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins, the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft. Manuel really wasn't all that bad his rookie season. He has the arm to find Watkins downfield and the legs to make things happen when the pocket collapses, an intriguing pass/run option if he can stay on the field.
Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: Well, we've been here before with this fellow, but Bradford was off to a really nice start last season before wrecking an ACL in October, having thrown three touchdown passes in half of the first six games. He's got weapons and job security and while it's the wrong division (the stacked NFC West) to expect miracles, Bradford averaged more points per game last year than Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Tom Brady, so don't write him off yet.

HacheMan · Jul 22, 2014

[h=1]2014 potential breakouts: running backs

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN INSIDER

[/h]
The top running back for the Denver Broncos last season was supposed to be hotshot rookie Montee Ball, but instead, forgotten veteran Knowshon Moreno stepped up in August, showed he could block effectively and produced by far the greatest season of his NFL career, thanks in no small part to the presence and ability of quarterback Peyton Manning. Still, it was a major surprise. Moreno was a 14th-round selection in ESPN average live drafts, but he finished a stunning fifth at his position in standard scoring. Moreno, now on the Miami Dolphins and certainly not expected to achieve the same success, was a clear and surprising breakout, seemingly near the end of a disappointing career in his fifth season. Instead, he posted career bests across the board. So, who's next?
After focusing on the breakout quarterbacks, it's time to check out the most important of fantasy positions, the running backs. Whereas most fantasy teams aren't even looking for a breakout quarterback, because there are certainly more than 10 capable starters for 10-team formats, the running back depth is weak, and we're all looking for help. Severalrunning backs will break out, and your job is to identify them in the middle to late rounds. As with quarterback, I'm leaving out all rookies. We're not so much concerned with age -- could be 22, could be 29 -- but we're searching for those who might have previously been incapable of earning opportunity or failed to seize it when it arrived. Perhaps you're not thinking about them much, and that's precisely the point, because past disappointments and complete unknowns do shock us on occasion.
We'll separate the following breakouts into two classes: First, we present the ones regarded as borderline fantasy starters or flex options, fellows you might already be selecting but hadn't perceived as really relevant. Then we'll go deeper, outside the top 40 in the ESPN Fantasy rankings for others who, like Moreno last August, could become home run choices. Got more thoughts on running back breakouts? Share them in the comments section or on Twitter!
RB breakouts: Top 40 version
Montee Ball, Denver Broncos: Yes, let's try this again, please. Ball is so talented, but part of the reason -- perhaps the part that mattered most -- that he didn't win the starting job last season was his inability to properly protect Manning, both standard pass-blocking and picking up blitzes. Moreno could. Ball could be among the best fantasy options in the sport with the backing of this offense, zipping past 1,500 total yards and double-digit touchdowns, and that's why someone so unproven could end up a first-rounder in your league. As of now, he costs a third-rounder in ESPN ADP, but that figures to change. If he's as good as advertised, price won't matter.
Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns: Wait, this franchise actually boasts players other than rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel? Who knew? Tate was Arian Foster's understudy with theHouston Texans for a few seasons, and while it went exceedingly well his rookie campaign, things changed for the worse in the two seasons since. Now in his age-26 season, Tate figures to handle what should be a bountiful rushing load, and he's capable of major numbers regardless of the team's eventual quarterback, if he can simply remain on the field.
Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals: Like Ball, this is another second-year guy with big-time talent, but the Cardinals seemed awfully scared about his size (5-foot-9, 199 pounds), enough to let the now-retired Rashard Mendenhall get 99 more rushing attempts. The same thing could happen this year with undeserving Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer, but just like Cincinnati Bengals sophomore Giovani Bernard, there's a future star lurking here, one who makes big plays running and catching footballs. And it's not Dwyer.
Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars: His story is much like Tate's in that Gerhart needed to find a new team willing to give him a chance. Back in Minnesota, there's some unheralded guy who will likely be the first overall pick in most fantasy drafts. Gerhart was a decent fantasy producer the second half of the 2011 season when Adrian Peterson was injured, and unlike Ellington, Gerhart is a larger man and doesn't figure to share touches. He could see an incredible workload, which we like. I half-expect an RB2, though he's hardly ranked that way.
David Wilson, New York Giants: Ah, remember what round you chose Wilson in last season? It's OK, we'll wait. He went early. Late in the third round in plenty of leagues, and let's just say those owners weren't pleased when a serious neck injury truncated what was shaping up to be a disappointing campaign after five games. Wilson announced to the world on Twitter that he's healthy and ready to star again, but now he has to beat out free-agent signee Rashad Jennings and rookie Andre Williams. If you're still angry at Wilson, don't be. The same upside remains.
RB breakouts: Back-end range
Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints: This remains a top-notch offense led by Drew Brees, and he tends to throw a lot. He's got half of the 5,000-yard passing seasons in league history (four of the eight). Darren Sproles has moved on to Philly, so even though Robinson caught nary a pass last season, there's potential opportunity. Pierre Thomas led all NFL running backs in receptions, but it makes sense for his workload -- running and catching -- to lessen. Robinson doesn't have much of a track record, but in this offense, he merely needs a chance to play.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins: Perhaps Miller really isn't any good. After all, the franchise signed Moreno from Denver, knowing full well he's not brimming with upside and won't produce similar statistics without Manning. Miller is somewhat forgotten by fantasy owners, and that's often what makes for a breakout performer, someone people gave up on. We've seen Miller disappoint, seldom breaking big plays, avoiding contact and being ignored at the goal line. But the team upgraded its woeful offensive line and Moreno has already had knee surgery this summer, putting the speedy Miller in position to again show off his skills. Hopefully he'll do something more with it this season.
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders: He's currently third on the depth chart after a pair of significantly older gents with durability issues, and that's why Murray deserves a little attention. The Central Florida product didn't play at all last season due to an ankle injury, and maybe he needs to wait another year to emerge, but good luck getting fantasy owners excited about Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden. At least Murray hasn't disappointed us yet.
Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks: Everyone seems to rave about this guy, last August's preseason star who barely touched the football during the regular season. And yes, Marshawn Lynch remains the unquestioned starter, and he's a productive one, too. There have been rumors of a committee approach to Seattle's running game this season, which seems ridiculous knowing Lynch's success, but if the team believes Michael will be better, fantasy owners should take a chance in the later rounds, too.
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos: If Ball fails to earn the coaches’ love, Anderson could (in theory) get the same opportunity Moreno got last August and ride Manning's coattails to elite production. Or he could get seven touches, as he did last season. If you select Ball early, this is the late handcuff, and a wise one.
Bryce Brown, Buffalo Bills: He seems a distant third on the depth chart after coming over from the Eagles, behind the occasionally electrifying C.J. Spiller and the considerably olderFred Jackson, but the former has had issues staying healthy enough for major touches, and though the latter is productive, he is 33 years old and hardly durable. Brown's career shows one magical two-game stretch in 2012 and little else, but he's got ability.
Marcus Lattimore, San Francisco 49ers: The South Carolina star continues to work his way back from major knee injuries, and the drafting of Carlos Hyde would seem a major impediment to Lattimore breaking out even if something befalls starter Frank Gore. But nobody said it would be obvious! This is a talented player who figures to contribute at some point soon.

HacheMan · Jul 23, 2014

[h=1]2014 potential breakouts: wide receivers[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN INSIDER

It's true that last summer [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Cleveland Browns[/FONT] wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Josh Gordon[/FONT] was on my list of potential breakout performers, along with the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Pittsburgh Steelers[/FONT]' [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Antonio Brown[/FONT] and the[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Baltimore Ravens[/FONT]' [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Torrey Smith[/FONT]. (Well, two outta three isn't too bad, though Smith wasn't necessarily bad.) One didn't need to be Nostradamus to realize the talent lurking in Gordon, but his second year provided the critical opportunity he needed to produce major numbers, as he ended up [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]fantasy's highest-scoring wide receiver[/FONT]. It doesn't appear he'll get the same chance to do that again in 2014, leaving opportunity for someone else on the Browns to step up.With breakouts for fantasy having been analyzed at quarterback and running back, let's move on to the wide receivers. As with the other positions, we're excluding all rookies for these purposes and dividing the options into two sections. The goal is to identify players perhaps under the radar in terms of value -- regardless of their age and prior failed chances -- who could break out into true or truer fantasy relevance. Some of the choices are going to be selected in all leagues, like the Ravens' Smith was in 2013 for example, the obvious top-40 wide receivers that you might not have considered a team building block. Others are far more off the radar -- like the Chicago Bears' Alshon Jeffery was last summer! -- but perhaps shouldn't be. Time to break out the options and you can share your thoughts in the comments section!
WR breakouts: top-40 version

Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings: Patterson could have done major damage his rookie campaign, but just didn't get the chance until Thanksgiving weekend, when he showed his immense talent. In December alone he caught three touchdown passes, rushed for three scores and continued to put on a show on kick returns. Don't worry about the quarterback situation in Minnesota as this is an emerging star and potential top-10 guy. While his current average draft position is in the seventh round, be prepared to reach higher.
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals: For a decade, fantasy owners have seen Larry Fitzgerald dominate the receiving landscape for this franchise, often with little room for a second option to matter. What has rarely been considered is that a younger player supplants Fitzgerald as the top option. Floyd is in position to do so (and possibly even finish in the top 10), and you'll be able to get him a whole lot later than Fitzgerald.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos: Location, location, location. Sanders is entering his fifth NFL season at age 27, coming off a fine campaign with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now he replaces Eric Decker in Denver with Peyton Manning as the quarterback. Don't assume Sanders does precisely what Decker did in 2013, but there's clear and present breakout potential for a veteran being a tad undervalued. This should be his best season and his ADP shows he's being underrated.
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions: Like Sanders, Tate has been a contributor and fantasy relevant the past year or two, but now he's headed to a better offense for wide receivers to accrue major statistics, albeit with the awesome Calvin Johnson also on the squad. Tate's true breakout potential is likely contingent on Megatron missing games due to injury, but that did occur last season, so it wouldn't be a great surprise.
Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys: This guy is a bit more off the radar, but the Cowboys figure to keep on throwing a lot, especially if the defense plays as poorly as it looks on paper, creating high-scoring track meets that Tony Romo owners will love. Williams seemed on the verge of major statistics during his rookie season, and now that Miles Austin has left town, he'll start. After averaging 16.7 yards per reception, a 1,000-yard season with perhaps double-digit touchdowns is hardly unreasonable, and it still allows Dez Bryant to remain a top-5 guy.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans: Another talented second-year player, Hopkins' numbers were better in the first half of the season, before the franchise went into complete tank mode. He caught only 15 passes the final seven games. The quarterback position has been upgraded with the capable Ryan Fitzpatrick -- no, really, he's competent -- and Hopkins should pile on the stats, especially if disgruntled star Andre Johnson leaves town.
WR breakouts: back-end range

Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans: Say what you will about quarterback Jake Locker, but Hunter is going to be a star regardless of who gets him the ball. We saw the big-play ability his rookie season when he averaged nearly 20 yards per catch, and he showed off with 100-yard receiving games in Weeks 12 and 14. Hunter's definitely breaking out, but whether he's merely relevant or a top-20 guy depends on consistency, and Locker's play.Aaron Dobson, New England Patriotsobson led the Patriots, as a rookie, in vertical receiving yards per game, and it seems awfully unlikely to me that all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski makes good on his promise to play all 16 games. Dobson's health is also far from assured, as he recovers from foot surgery, but he's the deep threat for Tom Brady when he's on the field.
Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams: Eager fantasy owners made him an eighth-round choice in ESPN live drafts last season, using the credo that if the Rams traded up into the top 10 to get the speedster, he would surely play a major role. Well, that didn't happen. Don't let real-life draft position sway you! Anyway, Austin's skills remain enticing; he scored six touchdowns as a rookie, but they came over three games. While last year's hype proved silly, the breakout potential remains if he can be consistent.
Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns: And here's the next Josh Gordon! OK, that's not likely, but Hawkins figures to be the top target for Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel, whoever earns the starting job at quarterback, and that's not something to unilaterally dismiss. Hawkins generally underachieved in his time with the Cincinnati Bengals, but he never had this degree of opportunity. I'd rather bet on him than Nate Burleson and Miles Austin, and keep an eye on Travis Benjamin, too.
Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers: The Oregon State product had a quiet rookie campaign with six receptions, but Sanders bolted for Denver, Jerricho Cotchery landed in Carolina and someone has to start opposite Antonio Brown. It could be Wheaton, worth a late look even in standard drafts.
Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints: The NFL leader in yards per reception last season, Stills could easily see double the targets in this elite Drew Brees-led offense. Or rookie Brandin Cooks could earn them. Still, as with others in this space, opportunity seems to be knocking with a few veterans from last season leaving town (Darren Sproles, Lance Moore), and that's intriguing enough.

HacheMan · Jul 27, 2014

[h=1]Be wary of Watkins, rookie wideouts[/h][h=3]Don't go overboard in going after first-year pass-catchers in fantasy drafts[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

e was the fourth player selected overall, and the first wide receiver, in May's NFL draft. He cost his drafting team the No. 9 overall pick this season plus its first- and fourth-round selections in 2015 in trade. He set career records at Clemson with 240 receptions and 3,391 receiving yards and matched the school record with 27 touchdowns. He has earned many scouts' raves as the top wide receiver prospect since [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A.J. Green[/FONT] and [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Julio Jones[/FONT] in 2011.

His name is Sammy Watkins, and partly for the reasons cited above, he's likely to be one of the more overrated commodities in 2014 fantasy football drafts.
History represents the remaining reason.
The learning curve for a wide receiver at the NFL level is steep, and rookies far more often than not disappoint rather than make an immediate impact. Perhaps because we more often remember players for their career peaks, we tend to forget how quietly their careers typically began. Coupled with our interest in being first to own the "next big thing," we tend to get caught up in rookie hype.
The chart below could not serve any clearer evidence; only 19 NFL rookie wide receivers since 1960 (that's 54 seasons) and six since 2000 (that's 14 seasons) managed to score 140 or more fantasy points. To put that into perspective, consider that 17 wide receivers managed at least 140 fantasy points in 2013 alone. Raising the bar, only 12 NFL rookie wide receivers during that 54-year span averaged at least 10 fantasy points per game while appearing in at least half their teams' scheduled games; that's one fewer than the total number of wide receivers (any experience level) who did so in 2013.
[h=4]Most Fantasy Points By Rookie Wide Receivers[/h]The top 20 rookie wide receiver seasons in terms of fantasy points since 1960.
Rank is the player's ranking among wide receivers that year.

Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Year</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Rank</center>
Randy Moss	1998	228	1
Charley Taylor	1964	204	1
Bob Hayes	1965	176	2
Anquan Boldin	2003	173	5
John Jefferson	1978	171	1
Joey Galloway	1995	160	14
Michael Clayton	2004	158	13
Bill Brooks	1986	155	8
Louis Lipps	1984	152	10
Mike Williams	2010	151	12
Eddie Brown	1985	147	9
Terry Glenn	1996	145	14
Marques Colston	2006	145	14
A.J. Green	2011	144	16
Sammy White	1976	144	3
Eddie Kennison	1996	143	16
Keenan Allen	2013	141	17
Cris Collinsworth	1981	141	9
Paul Warfield	1964	141	5
Julio Jones	2011	139	19
Lee Evans	2004	139	24

But the overall scope of rookie wide receivers doesn't provide an ideal outline for Watkins' rookie-year prospects; one could cite the rookie campaigns of Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin or Joey Galloway, from the past two decades alone, as supporting evidence of a breakout and that would be a legitimate claim. It's situational examples among historical rookie wide receivers that pinpoint Watkins' chances, three examples specifically.
[h=3]Prospect stock: The higher the NFL pick, the safer the fantasy pick[/h]Greater football talents tend to be selected with higher draft picks, and while that's not to say that every player picked early fares better than every player picked late (or undrafted), the odds of an early-round pick succeeding are significantly greater than that of a later-round pick. Extracting just the rookie wide receivers, here are the average outputs by pick in the draft:
First 32 picks: 4.6 FPTS/G (73.0 per 16)
Picks 33-64: 3.0 FPTS/G (47.9 per 16)
Picks 65-96: 2.5 FPTS/G (39.3 per 16)
Picks 97-draft's end: 1.5 FPTS/G (24.7 per 16)
Undrafted players: 1.4 FPTS/G (22.4 per 16)
Of the 174 wide receivers since 1960 to be one of the first 32 selections in the NFL draft -- the effective "first round" -- 24.7 percent scored at least 96 fantasy points, that number selected because it's an average of six points over a 16-game schedule. To compare: Only 9.1 percent of the next 32 picks managed at least that many; only 4.9 percent of the following 32 did; and only 1.7 percent of the players picked 97th or later managed at least 96 fantasy points.
As for the top five selections overall (21 wide receivers fell within this group since 1960), they averaged 6.1 fantasy points per game, with a seasonal average of 82.2 fantasy points, and 47.6 percent managed at least 96 fantasy points -- but only 14.7 percent managed at least 128 (or an eight-point average in a 16-game season). Watkins therefore has as good odds of success as any rookie wide receiver in history, but understand that still represents less than 50/50 odds using a 54-year history of top-five draft picks.
[h=3]His quarterback: Matters, but doesn't have to be a stud[/h]Watkins' critics most commonly will point to his quarterback, EJ Manuel, as rationale for expecting him to fall short of expectations. They have a point; Manuel's 12.4 fantasy points per game average in 2013 ranked 22nd out of 33 quarterbacks to start at least eight games. In addition, only two of Manuel's 10 games all year resulted in a top-10 fantasy point score among quarterbacks.
Breaking down historical wide receiver performance by the productivity of his quarterback, the following chart takes team fantasy point totals by all quarterbacks on the roster who started at least one game in the given season. To get the most comparative sample to Watkins, only wide receivers selected among the top 100 picks in the draft were part of the study.

Team's QBs FPTS	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/16</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">96+ FPTS</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">128+ FPTS</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">160+ FPTS</center>
0-100	2.6	42.0	4.5%	0.0%	0.0%
101-150	2.7	42.9	5.8%	1.9%	0.0%
151-200	3.5	55.9	14.9%	7.4%	2.0%
201-250	3.3	53.6	12.3%	2.8%	0.9%
251-300	4.4	70.4	28.2%	15.4%	0.0%
300+	5.4	86.9	30.0%	10.0%	10.0%

As you can see, a sub-200 fantasy point total for a quarterback isn't a death sentence for a rookie wide receiver, but a sub-150 season certainly seems to be. Slicing that pie into smaller pieces -- say, 151-175 and 176-200 -- doesn't significantly alter the numbers either. That said, notice the significant advantage a rookie wide receiver experienced when his quarterback(s) ranked among the most productive in the league, both in terms of average fantasy points per game and number of 96-point performers.
Incidentally, analyzing rookie wide receiver performance depending on number of starting quarterbacks revealed minimal impact. Those who played with only one quarterback averaged 3.4 fantasy points per game, with 15.7 percent of them managing at least 96 points. Those who played with two or more quarterbacks averaged 3.3 fantasy points, with 10.7 percent of them totaling 96-plus. This is a significant point considering that, in addition to Manuel, Thad Lewis (5) and Jeff Tuel (1) also started games for the 2013 Buffalo Bills.
This, therefore, boils down to how much you believe in Manuel's sophomore-year progress. Do you believe he's due for another season in the 12.4 fantasy points per game range -- a total of 198 over 16 games -- or is he capable of stepping up his game to perhaps an average between 15 and 16 points (for 250 total)? Your answer has plenty to say about Watkins' probability of making an immediate, every-week impact.
[h=3]Supporting cast: A good one helps[/h]A rookie wide receiver's competition -- between both that and the tight end position -- also has an influence on his performance. For this, let's narrow the scope to only those first 32 picks in the draft. The chart below breaks rookie wide receivers down by the next-best fantasy point total by a wide receiver or tight end on the roster (whether that player was the team's leader or the next-highest scorer after the rookie in question).

WR/TE's FPTS	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">G/per</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/16</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">96+ FPTS</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">128+ FPTS</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">160+ FPTS</center>
0-100	13.7	4.6	73.2	25.3%	8.0%	1.3%
101-150	13.7	4.2	67.3	21.7%	10.0%	3.3%
151+	12.7	5.2	83.3	28.9%	15.8%	2.6%

The differences aren't major outside of the probability that the rookie performs at a historically good level; the rate of 128-point seasons was almost twice as high for players who had an elite, 150-plus-point pass-catcher elsewhere on the roster (15.8 percent) as it was for those who played on a team without another 100-point performer (8.0 percent). And that's a big deal for Watkins; the 16 current wide receivers and tight ends on the Bills' roster totaled 279 fantasy points in 2013, none exceeding 73 points (Robert Woods), and Mike Williams is the only one of the group to have ever had a 100-point fantasy season (151, 2010).
Again, does this mean that Watkins cannot thrive as a rookie, perhaps break the 160-point fantasy plateau to become a weekly lineup option and maybe even shatter some rookie records? No.

This is about playing the percentages, and considering the rookie class' history, Watkins' still-developing quarterback and his complete lack of supporting cast to help deflect defensive attention, his odds aren't outstanding. In the best-case scenario, he would make a run at a top-15 fantasy season at his position; for our purposes that's a low-end, matchup-conscious WR2. It's the primary reason we rank him 30th at his position; he's simply neither as proven nor in as favorable a situation as many ranked ahead of him. The smarter move is to give him flex-play treatment and enjoy it in the unlikely event he thrives in 2014. Thirtieth, frankly, is a smart place to pick him.
And here's the kicker: If Watkins faces that kind of challenge as a rookie, imagine what that means for fellow freshmen Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, Odell Beckham andJordan Matthews, all of whom were selected later in the draft and didn't enter with as outrageous expectations?

Be conservative with these rookies. It's the wise way to play.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2014

[h=1]Overvalued fantasy QBs[/h][h=3]Metrics indicate that Peyton, three other passers are being drafted too high[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

When there are 14 quarterbacks projected to score 250 or more points, it would seem difficult to place too high of a value on certain passers, but this hasn't prevented multiple quarterbacks from being drafted too early.
This first in a four-part series aims to help fantasy owners with this quandary by identifying players who are overvalued, starting with the four quarterbacks who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position -- ADP) than they should be, based on my analysis. They range from former top scoring threats to an up-and-coming young player on whom fantasy owners are placing unrealistic expectations.
Here are my four most overvalued fantasy quarterbacks:
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[h=3]Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 5.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 1
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 3
The potential for a repeat of his record-setting 2013 season is causing a lot of fantasy owners to value Manning as the No. 1 quarterback, and as a middle-of-the-first-round pick in ESPN live drafts. Tempting as it may be to look for a recurrence of that campaign, there are multiple reasons to believe Manning is on the verge of a significant drop-off.
Topping this list is schedule strength. Going into the 2013 season, the Broncos ranked first in my defensive coverage schedule ranking system that measures how adept a team's upcoming opponents are at stopping the pass. That ranking meant Denver had the most favorable set of passing matchups in the NFL. This season, Denver adds the NFC West teams to its docket, leading to the third-toughest pass-defense schedule in 2014.
The Broncos also swapped out Eric Decker -- who signed with the New York Jets in free agency -- for free-agent signing Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders is coming off of a season where he set career highs in receptions (67), receiving yards (740) and receiving touchdowns (6), but his 9.3 vertical yards per attempt total (VYPA, a measure of production on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked last among Pittsburgh's qualifying wide receivers (48 or more targets to qualify).
By contrast, Decker was so dominant that he posted a 14.4 VYPA that was actually higher than what teammate -- and top-five fantasy WR -- Demaryius Thomas posted (14.1).
A third factor is Denver's running game and the development of Montee Ball. Ball struggled early in his rookie season, but by the end of the year his game had turned around. This ground-game development is part of why the Broncos' offense may actually be better overall this season, but the improved rushing attack could also cause a reduction in short-pass touchdowns (scores on attempts that travel 10 or fewer yards downfield). Manning had 33 of these in 2013, an amazing total that led the league and was nearly double what the second-place finisher posted (Drew Brees, 17). The potential fantasy point drop-off in this area alone could make quite an impact.
After he reached unprecedented highs, it might seem difficult to think that Manning will decline, but try looking at it through this prism: If penalties are included, Manning had a league-leading 688 pass attempts last season. Are the Broncos really going to ask him to drop back that many times against tough defenses such as Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis, Kansas City (twice), the New York Jets, New England and Cincinnati? Especially when they can lean on the run game in a way they couldn't last season?
This sort of situation has happened to Manning before. In 2004, he faced a slew of terrible pass defenses and racked up record-setting numbers that led to 362 fantasy points. In the following season, the defensive matchups were tougher, and his fantasy production dropped to 248 points, a total that ranked third among quarterbacks. A No. 3 ranking among quarterbacks is probably where he will end up this season, and getting that type of value from a first-round pick just isn't good enough to justify the selection.

[h=3]Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 85.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 12
TFS positional rank: No. 15
This has less to do with Ryan ranking as a high-end QB2 than it does with his ranking relative to the placements of Tony Romo (97.5 ADP, No. 13) and Philip Rivers (102.5, No. 14).
Ryan could certainly see an improvement over his 2013 fantasy points total (239, ranked 14th) due to having Julio Jones back in the lineup for a full season after a campaign where he played in only five games. The development of Harry Douglas, who caught 85 passes for 1,067 yards in 2013, should also help mitigate the production loss brought on by the retirement of Tony Gonzalez. If all goes well, Ryan could even return to his former production levels that saw him place seventh or eighth in fantasy QB points in the 2010-2012 campaigns.
The problem is that Rivers (276 points, ranked sixth) and Romo (252 points, ranked 10th) both outscored Ryan last season, and they have similar upside arguments, as explored inmy undervalued fantasy QBs story.
Because Romo and Rivers both scored more than Ryan did last season, and because they both have similar upside cases to Ryan, it really doesn't make sense to select Ryan one or two rounds earlier.

[h=3]Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 116.1
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 16
TFS positional rank: No. 23
What could Manziel do if he lands the Browns' starting quarterback job? If he averages only half of the rushing yards per game he racked up in college and adds only 10 passing points per contest, it would put him at a borderline QB1 scoring pace.
The issue is Manziel isn't on track to be the Browns' starting quarterback. According to ESPN NFL Nation Browns reporter Pat McManamon, it really isn't even a close race at the moment.
If Manziel does land the job, getting those 10 passing points per game also isn't a given. With Josh Gordon on track to miss a good portion (or all) of the season due to suspension, the Browns' top three wide receivers will be Miles Austin, Nate Burleson and Travis Benjamin.
Taking a high-risk lottery pick makes sense at the right price, but when the cost of that pick means passing up some durable QB2 options such as Ben Roethlisberger or Eli Manning(who has an incredibly favorable schedule and a new, high-percentage West Coast offense to run), it's too much risk. Take Manziel as a QB3 and the risk/reward ratio will be just right.

[h=3]Michael Vick, New York Jets[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 136.1
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 24
TFS positional rank: No. 30
Why take a guy who "has all but conceded" the starting quarterback job toGeno Smith ahead of Smith? Smith needs to make a number of improvements in his second NFL season, but he did have five games with 20 or more fantasy points in 2013.
For those wanting to avoid the Jets' offense altogether (probably a wise move), why not take Carson Palmer or Josh McCown instead of Vick?
Palmer plays in the most vertically oriented passing offense in the NFL (he led the league with 227 vertical attempts last season) and has Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd on his side. McCown outproduced Jay Cutler in the Chicago Bears' offense last year, and will get to throw passes to Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins this fall. Both are a much better option than Vick, given the uncertainty of the depth chart, and the pass-catching group for Rex Ryan's team.

HacheMan · Jul 29, 2014

[h=1]Undervalued fantasy RBs[/h][h=3]Among backs being drafted too low: LeSean McCoy, who should be No. 1[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

It may the age of the pass in the NFL, but when running backs comprise 11 out of the first 20 picks in the average ESPN fantasy football draft, it shows fantasy owners still place a high value on the ground game.
Ironically enough, that valuation has not prevented a situation in which there are a significant number of undervalued running backs.
This is the second in a four-part series that aims to help fantasy owners by identifying players who are undervalued and overvalued. These six running backs are being taken later in drafts -- as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position (ADP) -- than they should be based on my analysis. They range from elite backs to young ball carriers ready to have breakout campaigns.
Here are my six most undervalued fantasy running backs:

[h=3]LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 2.7
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 2
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 1
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Running backs are only as good as their blocking, and no back received better run blocking last year than McCoy. The Eagles posted a league-leading 49.6 percent mark in the good blocking rate (GBR) category that measures how often a blocking wall gives a ball carrier good blocking (which is roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). Philadelphia gets all five of its starting offensive linemen back (although right tackle Lane Johnson will serve a four-game suspension), so a repeat performance here is likely.
There may be concern that Darren Sproles will take some of McCoy's receptions, but head coach Chip Kelly wants the offense to run more plays than it did last year, so there will be additional running and passing plays to go around.
For those thinking Adrian Peterson should go first, consider this: McCoy is three years younger than All Day, has less wear and tear (2,239 career carries/receptions for Peterson, 1,421 for McCoy) and plays in a much better overall offense. Add all of those factors together and it equals McCoy earning the top spot in fantasy football.

[h=3]Matt Forte, Chicago Bears[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 5.7
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 4
TFS positional rank: No. 2
Bears head coach Marc Trestman worked wonders in getting Jay Cutler's career turned around, and he did the same with Forte. Last season, Forte set career highs in rushing yards (1,339), rushing touchdowns (9), receptions (74) and receiving yards (594).
Those totals led to his being one of only three backs to score 250 or more fantasy points. Moreover, his 8.8 average in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category, which measures a ball carrier's productivity on run plays with good blocking, was the best among running backs with 100 or more good blocking rush attempts.
The schedule also points to an upward trajectory for Forte, as the Bears have the fourth-most favorable run defense schedule, according to my schedule strength analysis. Forte was a top-three back in 2013, and should be just as good or better in 2014; however, he is currently being taken at the No. 5 or No. 6 spot in most fantasy draft rooms.

[h=3]Montee Ball, Denver Broncos[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 24.5
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 13
TFS positional rank: No. 6
The Broncos won't be able to lean on the pass as much this year because they face an incredibly tough pass defense schedule. They will need Ball to step up and be a bell-cow back, and all the signs point to his being ready for this task.
One important sign is his improvement in GBYPA. In Weeks 1 through 12 last season, Ball posted a mediocre 5.1 GBYPA, but in Weeks 13 through 17 he racked up an impressive 8.8 GBYPA. Another sign is Denver's superb run blocking. The Broncos generated a 48.8 percent GBR, which tied for second in the league, and that was without three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady. Clady will be returning from the foot injury he suffered in Week 2 that ended his 2013 campaign.
Maybe most important, Ball has shown tremendous improvement in pass blocking. This means Denver can trust him to protect Peyton Manning and therefore can make him a true three-down back. All of this should lead to the Broncos having an overall better offense this year, and to Ball vying for a spot among the top fantasy running backs.

[h=3]Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 48.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 20
TFS positional rank: No. 15
Ellington led the league in GBYPA last year, with a 10.2-yard mark, and Arizona head coach Bruce Arians has indicated he wants to lean on Ellington a lot more, saying at one point that he wanted him to post as many as 25-30 rushes/receptions per game.
That may be an unrealistic total, but even if Ellington gets only 20 rushes/receptions per game, it would roughly double his 2013 workload (118 rushes, 39 receptions). Double his 115-point fantasy total from last year, and it would put him into high-end RB1 territory. To get him in the fifth round as the No. 20 running back is an absolute steal.

[h=3]Chris Johnson, New York Jets[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 53.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS positional rank: No. 16
Last year, Johnson suffered a torn meniscus in Week 3 and yet still ended up with a solid GBYPA (7.3, ranked tied for 23rd out of 47 qualifying backs) and was a low-end RB1 in fantasy football (189 points, tied for eighth).
The Jets may not use him as a bell cow, but it would take a roughly 30 percent decrease in his fantasy point production to drop him down to his current RB3 ADP level. That could happen if Chris Ivory holds up for an entire season, but Ivory has dealt with several different injuries, which is why Ivory had tallied only 347 carries in his college and pro careers up until last year.
Look for a healthy Johnson to shoulder the load for this offense and post RB2, and maybe even low-end RB1, numbers.

[h=3]Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 96.8
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 34
TFS positional rank: No. 25
Sproles is rightfully known for his pass-catching ability, but last year he posted a very respectable 8.0 GBYPA. As noted above, Philadelphia had the best run-blocking wall in the NFL last season, and should contend for that honor again this year.
Kelly is looking to increase the Eagles' offensive tempo, and brought Sproles in to handle some of the additional rush and pass attempts. All of this should lead to an improvement upon Sproles' 2013 fantasy performance that saw him post midrange RB4-caliber numbers (90 points, ranked 36th) and yet his ADP does not reflect this.
He's an RB3 who can currently be taken as an RB4, and therefore is currently a terrific value pick.

HacheMan · Jul 30, 2014

[h=1]Overvalued fantasy WRs[/h][h=3]Demaryius Thomas among seven wideouts being drafted too early[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Plenty of quality receivers are in fantasy football, but that doesn't mean that some aren't overvalued for their production level.
The third installment of our four-part series on overvalued players takes aim at seven wide receivers who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be based on my own value analysis. They range from top-of-the-line No. 1 wideouts to long-time veterans who no longer command automatic start status.
Here are my seven most overvalued fantasy wide receivers.

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[h=3]1. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 13.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 2
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 10
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An incredibly difficult pass defense schedule has made Peyton Manning anovervalued fantasy quarterback and looks to be doing the same thing to Thomas' fantasy value.
Thomas had more than his share of struggles last season when facing strong cornerback competition, averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt (YPA) when facing cornerbacks whom I rated red (top-flight starters) or yellow (good starters). That YPA mark ranked 65th among all wide receivers and was third lowest among wideouts with at least 40 targets against that caliber of competition.
Thomas is due to face 13 red- or yellow-rated cornerbacks this year, and he could face even tougher competition if the Seahawks and Patriots decide to move Richard Sherman andDarrelle Revis around to shadow him. Thomas has enough skill to rank as a top-10 wide receiver, but when the matchup odds are this stacked against him, Thomas shouldn't be considered the second-best wide receiver prospect in fantasy football.

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[h=3]2. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 16.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 3
TFS positional rank: No. 9
The Bengals replaced a playcaller who leans heavily on the vertical passing game (Jay Gruden) for a playcaller who prefers a power rushing attack (Hue Jackson). To get an idea of just how impactful that type of change can be, consider that last year, Gruden's Bengals ranked in the top 12 in pass attempts (12th), passing yards (eighth) and passing touchdowns (third). By contrast, in Jackson's four years as an NFL playcaller, his teams have finished in the top 12 in any of those categories on two occasions -- 11th in attempts in 2003 and 11th in yards in 2011. In general, his offenses tend to finish in thebottom half of the league in all of those categories.
If the playcaller change merely results in the loss of 10 percent of Green's production from last year, he would lose 20 points off of his 203-point total. That would drop him into low-end WR1 territory, which is where his draft-day value should be.

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[h=3]3. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 40.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 13
TFS positional rank: No. 18
Michael Floyd is primed to take over as the Cardinals' No. 1 wide receiver. He bested Fitzgerald in overall YPA (9.7 for Floyd, 7.7 for Fitzgerald) and vertical YPA (production on throws 11 or more yards downfield) with an 11.4 to Fitzgerald's 9.5 mark last season. Fitzgerald is coming off of a second straight campaign in which he failed to top the 1,000-yard receiving mark. His 11.2 and 11.6 yards-per-reception totals over the past two years are two of the three lowest of his career. Fitzgerald has placed 16th or lower in fantasy wide receiver points three of the past four years, and there isn't much to suggest that trend is going to turn around.

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[h=3]4. Wes Welker, Denver Broncos[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 48.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 30
Most dink-and-dunk wide receivers don't have significant fantasy value because short passes don't usually equal large fantasy point totals. Welker has bucked that trend over the years by posting workhorse short-pass volumes and superb YPA totals on those throws, but that combination of rare traits may be coming to an end.
In 2013, Welker posted a 5.5 short pass YPA that ranked tied for 35th out of 42 wide receivers with at least 50 short-pass targets. He missed three games for the first time in his career and is reaching an age (33) and career workload (841 receptions, ranked 24th all time) that suggest more missed games could be in his future. Denver drafted Cody Latimerin part for his ability on short passes, so Welker could be looking at a split-targets situation. That would be a red flag for Welker, but it's even more pronounced given the aforementioned difficult pass-defense schedule that should have the Broncos looking to run the ball more often. Welker could make a solid WR3 under these circumstances, but to rely on him as a WR2 is a low-percentage proposition.

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[h=3]5. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 62.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS positional rank: No. 38
Fifty-six fantasy points in two games. That's what Hilton posted in Week 5 against Seattle (26 points) and Week 9 against Houston (30 points). That kind of upside is what is causing fantasy owners to consider him a high-end WR3. But take a moment to look at the flip side of that coin: Hilton posted 76 points in the other 14 games. Prorate that pace out for a full season, and it's what one would expect from a WR5. Hilton's upside makes it a sensible move to draft him higher than a WR5 spot, but with this level of production inconsistency, it seems very risky to rate him higher than a WR4.

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[h=3]6. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 72.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS positional rank: No. 37
New England's woes at wide receiver last year caused the Patriots to make a lot of adjustments, including directing 44 vertical passes in Edelman's direction. That total ranked tied for 33rd among wide receivers, and his 456 vertical yards ranked 38th. Edelman's production wasn't particularly good on these throws, as his 10.4 VYPA ranked tied for 47th. The Patriots are not going to want to see a repeat of this, and the presence of Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson and Brandon LaFell should ensure that it won't happen again. Danny Amendola could also take some short-pass targets away from Edelman. If the result of these is a 25- to 30-point reduction for Edelman, it will drop him from his low-end WR2 status last year to mid- to upper-tier WR4 status.

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[h=3]7. Riley Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 89.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 33
TFS positional rank: No. 55
Cooper is much like Hilton in that his fantasy numbers were heavily skewed by a couple of dominant performances. He scored 54 combined points in Week 9 (32 against Oakland) and Week 10 (22 against Green Bay) but scored only 74 points in the other 14 games. That latter pace places him at a low-WR4/high-WR5 level. The draft-day addition ofJordan Matthews, who has the skills to take over Cooper's starting job eventually (and maybe as early as this year) will also siphon some targets away from Cooper.

HacheMan · Jul 31, 2014

[h=1]Overvalued fantasy TEs[/h][h=3]Julius Thomas and four others are being taken too high in drafts so far[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

It is generally thought that the only tight ends fantasy football owners think about taking too early are Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. In reality, there are multiple tight ends who are being taken too high in the average fantasy draft.
This fourth in a four-part series aims to help fantasy owners by identifying players who are overvalued, which in this case covers the five tight ends who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts -- as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position (ADP) -- than they should be based on my analysis. They range from players who have posted double-digit touchdowns in past seasons to former TE1 veterans whose past glories may be causing some sentimentality.
Here are my five most overvalued fantasy tight ends:

[h=3]Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 35.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 2
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 4
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The Broncos are due to face an incredibly tough set of passing matchups -- a reality that caused both his quarterback Peyton Manning and his fellow pass-catchers Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker to also make my overvalued lists -- and Thomas is no exception. He is due to face eight red-rated matchups (red indicating the toughest matchup level), and thus is tied for the third-toughest slate of matchups among tight ends, according to my schedule strength rankings.
Moreover, Denver is apt to lean on the run a lot more this year, and that will also lead to a reduction in overall pass attempts. If the combination of these two factors ends up dropping Thomas from 12 touchdown receptions (his 2013 total that ranked third among tight ends) to somewhere in the range of six to nine scores, he would drop to mid-tier TE1 status. That is a likely scenario, and should keep Thomas from being selected as the second tight end in fantasy drafts.

[h=3]Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 60.5
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 5
TFS positional rank: No. 7
Witten is 32 years old and coming off of a season during which he posted receptions (73) and receiving yards (851) totals that were his lowest since 2006. New offensive playcaller Scott Linehan is a pass-heavy coach, but in his 12 years directing NFL offenses, Linehan's tight ends have ranked in the top 10 in fantasy scoring only two times.
It's possible Witten will buck this historical trend and repeat his top-five finish from last year, but it is just as possible that age is catching up to him and a decline is in the works.

[h=3]Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 66.8
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 6
TFS positional rank: No. 10
In projecting whether Cameron will repeat his superb 2013 season, it depends on what is meant by repeat. If it means his fantastic start to the campaign (64 points in the first four contests), that's one thing. If it means his performance the rest of the season (63 points in the last 13 contests), that's another thing.
Cameron will certainly not benefit from Norv Turner leaving the Browns to call plays in Minnesota. Turner's playbook has a lot of downfield passes to tight ends built into it, and that helped Cameron to rank second among tight ends in vertical targets (46 pass attempts that traveled at least 11 yards downfield).
New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will use the tight end, but last year his top two tight ends (Jordan Reed and Logan Paulsen) had a combined total of 18 vertical targets.
A reduction in downfield passes could mean Cameron's latter-season scoring pace from last year will be his 2014 trend, and that would mean he is a low-end TE1.

[h=3]Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 119.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 11
TFS positional rank: No. 14
If the overall points total is used as the barometer, Bennett was a borderline TE1 last year (96 points, ranked 10th), but he really wasn't someone fantasy owners could count on. Forty-three percent of his production occurred in the three double-digit games he posted last year, so outside of those contests, he was a low-end TE3.
Bennett did not have much vertical pass production (285 vertical yards, ranked tied for 14th) and that number could drop if No. 3 wide receiver candidate Marquess Wilson (a superb downfield threat) continues to progress.
Don't count on Bennett as a starter; aim to find a higher-upside TE2 candidate among the undervalued tight ends.

[h=3]Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 138.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 16
TFS positional rank: No. 20
Miller should be given a lot of credit for posting an 8.2 YPA (ranked tied for 15th among TEs) after coming back from a ruinous knee injury. It makes him the type of player for whom fans want to root, but there are several factors working against him as a top-level fantasy option this season.
He has placed 20th or lower in tight end fantasy points in three of the past four years. Furthermore, Miller is due to face seven red-rated matchups, so in nearly half of his games, the matchup odds will be stacked against him. He will also turn 32 in October.
Any one of those negative elements could justify not taking Miller as a mid-range TE2, and the combination works to move him to borderline TE3 status.

HacheMan · Aug 3, 2014

[h=1]Undervalued fantasy QBs[/h][h=3]Metrics indicate that Brees, six other passers are going too low in drafts[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

When there are 14 quarterbacks projected to score 250 or more fantasy points, it can cause passers to fall a lot further down draft boards than they should.
This is the first in a four-part series that aims to help fantasy owners by identifying players who are undervalued, starting with the seven quarterbacks who fall into this category. These players are being taken later in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be based on my analysis. They range from elite passers who could be on the verge of career-best seasons to quarterbacks who have a shot to crack the top 10 in fantasy scoring at the position but are being taken among the ranks of No. 2 fantasy QBs.
Here are my seven most undervalued fantasy quarterbacks:

[h=3]Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 14.1
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 3
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 1
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There is a case to be made that Brees could be the No. 1 overall prospect in fantasy football, not just at QB. He works in an offense that calls a ton of vertical passes (218 throws that traveled 11 or more yards downfield, ranked second last year). That trait helped lead to his scoring 348 fantasy points, the second-highest total in fantasy football.
This year, he'll once again have Jimmy Graham -- the best tight end in the NFL -- back in the lineup, and the rest of his receiving targets should be vastly upgraded.
The upgrade starts with Marques Colston. He finished last season with a 12.0 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) mark that ranked 11th out of 28 wideouts with at least 50 vertical targets. Colston did this despite battling a foot injury most of the year, and will be heading into this season fully healthy.
Kenny Stills moves up to a starting role, and does so after generating a set of phenomenal metrics that included a No. 3 ranking in VYPA (17.5) and a No. 1 ranking in overall YPA (13.4). He did this on only 51 targets, so if he gets to 100 targets the upside is gargantuan.
Brandin Cooks has been on the field practicing with the Saints only a handful of times, but he already has engendered so many awe-inspired comments from his teammates that he is being viewed as a serious contender for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Add to all of this a defensive coverage schedule that my schedule ranking system has rated as tied for the most favorable in the NFL this year, and it means Brees has off-the-charts upside. Since his downside is 39 passing touchdowns and 5,000 or more passing yards (totals he has reached in each of his past three seasons), it makes Brees the best quarterback on the board in 2014.

[h=3]Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 11.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 2
TFS positional rank: No. 2
Rodgers is much like Brees in that he has a long history of incredible metrics, including an 8.7 YPA last year that was second in the league. He also has tremendous pass-receiving threats such as Jordy Nelson (16.2 VYPA last year, ranked fourth), Randall Cobb(14.2 VYPA) and Brandon Boykin (13.0 VYPA). Rodgers is also one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the NFL and has a history of being one of the best scrambling passers as well.
Rodgers also benefits from having Eddie Lacy draw a ton of defensive attention to stopping the run. Just as important, the Packers have the fourth-most favorable pass defense schedule according to my schedule strength rankings.
All of this puts Rodgers in a similar upside category to Brees, and he has a similar high-end QB1 point floor. This makes him a strong first-round candidate, yet he is currently lasting until early in the second round on average. Once the elite running backs and Brees are off the board, Rodgers should be the next player picked.

[h=3]Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 70.1
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 11
TFS positional rank: No. 9
Kaepernick has a path to become a top-three fantasy quarterback. He was a low-end QB1 last year (253 points, ranked ninth) despite some meager passing volumes. He had only 432 pass attempts (ranked 21st), 151 vertical pass attempts (ranked 16th) and only 21 passing touchdowns (ranked 17th).
All of those aerial numbers should trend upward now that the 49ers will have a full year ofMichael Crabtree, and added Stevie Johnson to the group that returns Anquan Boldin andVernon Davis. It would take only an increase of 10-15 percent over this past year's passing numbers to give Kaepernick 40-60 more passes, 300-450 more yards and two to three more touchdowns. Add those to what he posted in 2013, and it could be enough to give him the 30 or so fantasy points he needs to move up to high-end QB1 status.

[h=3]Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 99.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 13
TFS positional rank: No. 10
What does Tony Romo have to do to get more respect from fantasy football owners? He placed 10th in QB fantasy points (252) in 2013 despite missing the last game of the year, and was only five points away from placing eighth; yet, fantasy owners right now have him going 13th at the position. Some of that has to do with his being a 34-year-old coming off two back surgeries in a year, but his recovery is reportedly going very well, and he has a history of durability (only four missed starts outside of the 2010 season).
If Romo merely returns to his performance level of last year, he will already be undervalued, but there are signs he can improve upon that performance. New offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has a history of being a pass-heavy playcaller (his teams have finished in the top five in pass attempts on five occasions). Dez Bryant is all but certain to improve upon an incredibly low 8.8 VYPA last year that ranked tied for 74th. Getting Terrance Williams more passes should pay off big, given his 18.2-yard showing in the stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA) metric that gauges production on aerials thrown 20 or more yards. The upside alone here makes him worth a higher ADP rank than his current 99.4.

[h=3]Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 104.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 14
TFS positional rank: No. 7
Rivers may be the only quarterback who gets less respect than Romo. In 2013, he finished sixth in fantasy QB points (276) and was only seven points away from finishing third, yet he is typically being drafted as a midrange QB2.
Mike McCoy's offense was in many ways a perfect match for Rivers, but it could be an even better fit this season given some personnel upgrades. Malcom Floyd has returned from a neck injury that cost him much of the 2013 campaign. The Chargers very much needed an upgrade at the stretch vertical level, as they attempted only 54 passes of that nature in 2013 (ranked 26th). Floyd's 17.4 SVYPA in 2012 ranked 15th out of 86 qualifying wide receivers, and should allow Rivers to significantly improve his stretch vertical game.
The Chargers also should be able to send a lot more targets in Ladarius Green's direction. He didn't see enough targets in 2013 to be listed as a season-ending qualifier, but his 14.2 overall YPA, 16.6 VYPA and 22.6 SVYPA all would be top-of-the-line numbers if posted on a larger volume.
It is easy to see Rivers once again competing for a top-five fantasy QB spot, so owners can either claim him as a high-upside QB2 or a very low-cost QB1.

[h=3]Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 113.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 15
TFS positional rank: No. 12
Cutler had an amazing transformation in his first year under Marc Trestman. Before this past season, Cutler had been the poster child for the bad decision rate (BDR) metric that measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense. Trestman made a number of adjustments in Cutler's game that led to a career-low 1.6 percent BDR.
That turnaround took away one of Cutler's main weaknesses, and should give Trestman a willingness to trust Cutler even more this year. The Bears have arguably the best starting wide receiver tandem in the NFL, a vastly improved offensive line (only 30 sacks allowed, tied for fourth best) and a top-five running back in Matt Forte. Those factors give Cutler at least low-end QB1-caliber upside, and yet he can be acquired as a midrange QB2.

[h=3]Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals[/h]Current ESPN live draft ADP: 136.9
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 26
TFS positional rank: No. 19
It is difficult to believe but it is true: Carson Palmer threw more vertical passes last year (227) than Peyton Manning (213) or Brees (217). That frequency of downfield throws is par for the course when working in a Bruce Arians offense. Palmer will get to direct a lot of those aerials to Larry Fitzgerald, but don't forget about Michael Floyd, who is ready to take over the No. 1 wide receiver spot in Arizona.
Combine the downfield passing with a rushing attack featuring breakout candidate Andre Ellington, and it should lead to Palmer placing among the top 20 fantasy QBs once again, as he has done in each of the past two seasons (No. 18 in 2012, No. 17 in 2013).

HacheMan · Aug 4, 2014

[h=1]Overvalued fantasy RBs[/h][h=3]Adrian Peterson not No. 1 material; beware of these five others, too[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

The scarcity of quality running backs might make it seem impossible for players at this position to be overvalued, but the laws of supply and demand still end up out of whack in some cases.
This second in a four-part series aims to help fantasy owners by identifying players who are overvalued, which in this case covers six running backs. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be, based on my analysis. They range from rushers vying for the top overall spot to veterans who are ready to start trending downward.
Here are my six most overvalued fantasy running backs:
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[h=3]Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 1.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 1
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 3
There is no doubt that Peterson is an elite fantasy running back. All Day ranked eighth among running backs in combined rushes/targets volume (318). His 8.6 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA, a category that measures a rusher's productivity when given good blocking) ranked third among ball carriers with at least 100 good blocking rushing attempts. Minnesota also has the second-most-favorable run defense schedule according to my schedule strength measurements, so matchups will be on Peterson's side as well.
The issue is that Peterson falls short of LeSean McCoy in many areas. McCoy is three years younger, has a lot less career wear and tear -- 1,421 career carries/receptions for McCoy; 2,239 career carries/receptions for Peterson -- and plays in a much better offense. Peterson does have tremendous durability, but he also has missed six games in the past three years.
Those negatives might seem like nitpicking, but when it comes to the top pick in a fantasy draft, they are significant factors. Peterson should be a top-three selection, but the top choice in this year's fantasy drafts should be McCoy.

[h=3]Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 12.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 7
TFS positional rank: No. 12
Martin faces a lot of negatives for someone being picked as an RB1. He posted a middle-of-the-road 7.3 GBYPA last year (tied for 23rd). The Bucs have made many changes to their offensive line in an effort to fix the worst run blocking in the league (34.5 percent good blocking rate), but those changes could take some time to take effect. Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith has indicated Martin is his lead back, but also has said he is planning on giving some carries to the other backs.
Maybe the best way to look at this is to use Matt Forte as a benchmark. Forte was Smith's lead back in Chicago for many years, and was an RB2 or very low-end RB1 in nearly every season. Martin is as talented as Forte, but with this many factors working toward pushing him to RB2 territory, it seems risky to select him as the No. 7 running back.

[h=3]Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 17.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 10
TFS positional rank: No. 23
Stacy turned out to be the Rams' go-to back this past season, but there are signs he won't have that role to himself this year. Prime among these is his 7.2 GBYPA. That number is OK for a starting running back, but it was more than a yard lower than the 8.3 GBYPA the Rams posted as a team. That means Stacy was much less productive than the other St. Louis ball carriers when given good blocking.
That type of limited breakaway skill may have led the Rams to draft potential breakaway threat Tre Mason in the third round of the NFL draft. Add in St. Louis' terrible run blocking (38.8 percent GBR, ranked 26th), a difficult schedule (the Rams have the second-toughest run defense schedule according to my matchup strength measurements) and Stacy's subpar receiving skills (72 receptions over the course of his college and pro careers) and it all points to his being a RB2 candidate at best.

[h=3]Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 38.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 17
TFS positional rank: No. 22
To count on Tate as an RB2 is to count on him to be able to handle a workload of at least 200 carries. Tate has never done that in the NFL, and did it just twice in his college career. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan may have a reputation for developing powerhouse rushing attacks, but his teams have finished 25th or worse in rushing yards in three of his six pro seasons.
The Browns also will need to give Tate a lot better blocking than they gave their backs in 2013 (39.6 percent GBR, ranked 22nd). With Terrance West giving Tate plenty ofcompetition for carries, it seems like a safer proposition to consider Tate an RB3 candidate.

[h=3]David Wilson, New York Giants[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 115.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 39
TFS positional rank: No. 60
Everyone agrees that Wilson has superb talent, but look at the extraordinary amount of negatives he brings to the table. He is coming off a very serious neck surgerythat required a spinal fusion. He's had ball security issues and offers very little in the receiving game (43 receptions over the course of his college and pro careers). Add in his history of subpar pass blocking and it would seem that he is a terrible fit for new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's West Coast system.
The Giants have Rashad Jennings to serve as their all-around back and Andre Williams to be their power back, so Wilson will have to battle for playing time. Put it all together, and it seems like Wilson should be more of a late-round lottery pick than an RB4 selection.

[h=3]Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 89.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 33
TFS positional rank: No. 59
Moreno admitted that he reported to Dolphins minicamp out of shape. Part of the lack of conditioning could be due to his having a knee issue that eventually required a surgical procedure and placement on the PUP list.
He is due to return before the end of the preseason, but will have to get back into shape and then battle Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas for playing time. That might seem like a positional clash that Moreno should win with ease, but it should be pointed out that his 6.8 GBYPA last year was equal to Thomas' and a bit behind Miller's (7.3 GBYPA).
Miami also will start this season with five new offensive linemen, so getting good blocking out of the gate could be a problem. Nothing about this situation says high-end RB4; it says low-end RB6.

HacheMan · Aug 4, 2014

[h=1]Is Zac Stacy worth a high pick?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Jim McCormick[/FONT] | Special to ESPN.com

Last year, Zac Stacy was a lovable waiver-wire legend. The Vanderbilt product saw just one carry and nine total snaps through Week 4 of his rookie season. From inactive to feature duties, Stacy took on meaningful snaps and touches in Week 5 and never looked back.
From Week 5 through the end of the season, Stacy posted the eighth-most standard fantasy points among all backs, as well as the seventh-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing touchdowns over that span. The Rams' eight-year streak of 1,000-yard rushers was snapped last season, but Stacy (973) gave it an impressive go when you consider the late start.

Stacy is being taken as the 10th running back off the board in ESPN live drafts. He is going 17.8 overall on average, with a healthy average auction stock of $36.3. Yet as the offseason develops and the Twitter banter and buzz build, it seems the marketplace isn't nearly as confident in Stacy as this ADP information suggests. I've seen Stacy slip well into the third round and even beyond in mock and expert drafts this offseason. In saying that, I suppose I've also been cold to Stacy's stock in those drafts.
The loudest doubts focus on Stacy's talent level -- calling into question if he's anything more than a downhill plodder in the Cedric Benson mold, solely dependent on volume to be a valuable fantasy asset (is that even a bad thing?).
Is Stacy a player prone to getting passed on the depth chart, especially given that the team invested in Heisman finalist Tre Mason in the draft, 85 picks ahead of where the Rams took Stacy in 2013? Or was last year's impressive sample (1,114 total yards with eight scores) enough to cement Stacy as the team's featured workhorse for 2014?
We'll do our best to try to answer these questions to gain an understanding of how we might want to price Stacy come draft day. For some insight into what kind of players Stacy and Mason are, I turned to Matt Williamson, NFL scout for ESPN and co-host of the Football Today Podcast: "I think Mason is clearly more laterally explosive and has a better burst and long speed, but Stacy is a no-nonsense downhill runner who stays low and doesn't give defenders a lot to hit. But in the end, I see Stacy more as a volume guy that needs a lot of touches to really put up numbers."
Short and stout at just 5-foot-8, Stacy has combine measurables that compare favorably to those of Doug Martin (closest match), DeAngelo Williams, Shane Vereen and Travis Henry (a former Jeff Fisher feature back). There's not a ton of "wiggle" to Stacy's game, as talent evaluators tend to say, as he ranked just 24th among qualifying backs (at least 50 percent of team's carries) in Pro Football Focus' elusive rating metric. Stacy forced a missed tackle on 11.6 percent of his carries, a respectable but middle-of-the-pack rate (top backs approach the 20 percent threshold).

Where Stacy really shines is in his ability to churn yards past contact. As Williamson noted, this skill is tied closely to Stacy's low base and consistent leverage. He was eighth among qualifying backs in yards after contact per attempt according to Pro Football Focus, with a healthy 2.45 Yco/Att clip (just ahead of backs such as LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte). There is also something of note when Stacy hits the second level, as he ranked 17th in breakaway percentage for Pro Football Focus, with 24.9 percent of his yardage coming on 10 rushes of 15 yards or more.
For specific and timely insights into this offense and backfield, I turned to ESPN's Rams beat writer Nick Wagoner for several key answers.
Should the presence of Mason be reason for concern in terms of Stacy's workload?
Nick Wagoner: Not to sit on the fence, but the answer is both yes and no. Yes, in the sense that Mason is simply more talented, is faster and was a more costly draft expenditure. But the answer for now is no in the sense that Mason is more of a long-term threat to Stacy than he is in the immediate future. Mason looks good in practice, but Stacy does too. Stacy is noticeably quicker, has leaned out a little bit and has clearly made the details -- catching passes, picking up blitzes -- his primary focus for improvement. Mason has a long way to go in some of those areas, particularly as a pass-blocker. Mason should find his way into some carries, but he also needs to hold off Benny Cunningham, whom the Rams like a lot more than people realize and is another year removed from a serious leg injury.
I'll add this caveat too: Stacy had a tendency to get little bumps and bruises. It's never anything that keeps him out of games, but he would miss a quarter here or a half there. If that happens this year and Mason comes in and lights it up, we could be talking about a changing of the guard in a Wally Pipp type of deal.

What's your early projection for the split we might see in the backfield workload?
NW: I still think Stacy is the main guy. I'd guess he's good for 17 to 20 carries a game with three or four catches. I think the Rams would like something in the range of a poor man's Frank Gore, where he picks up all the tough yards and handles a heavy workload (the Gore of old, anyway) while providing a steady hand for the offense.
From there, I think Mason will eventually be an 8-10 guy with Cunningham and Isaiah Pead getting some work as well. They haven't given up on Pead even though the rest of us have. It looks like he could be used on third down to catch passes and pick up blitzes.
Do you get the impression Stacy is the unquestioned workhorse at this stage?
NW: There are mixed signals. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer insisted in the spring that he wanted competition for the job, but I've seen nothing in this camp to indicate that Stacy isn't the guy. I think they like him and, more important, I think they trust him.
To piggyback on Wagoner's information, coach Jeff Fisher told reporters earlier this offseason that Stacy would "probably be that 70 percent of the carries guy." Fisher's coaching history (going back to 2001 in the chart below) suggests the inclusion of a "70 percent" lead back is steady save for a few seasons split by injuries among his backfields.
[h=4]Backfield Leaders On Jeff Fisher's Teams Since 2001[/h]

Year	Lead running back (most carries)	Percentage of RB attempts	Percentage of RB targets	Touches	Fantasy RB ranking (ESPN standard)
2001	Eddie George	81.6	70.5	352	21
2002	Eddie George	81.4	46.4	379	10
2003	Eddie George	72.3	47.7	334	22
2004	Chris Brown (11 games)	57.7	57.7	240	26
2005	Chris Brown	63.6	42.8	249	20
2006	Travis Henry	71.2	32.3	288	18
2007	LenDale White	69.1	42.4	323	17
2008	Chris Johnson	53.5	63	294	11
2009	Chris Johnson	83.1	76.9	408	1
2010	Chris Johnson	85.8	67	360	5
2012	Steven Jackson	70.4	56.9	296	16
2013	Zac Stacy	67	43.5	276	17

I thought it was more appropriate to display Fisher's backfield trends versus Schottenheimer's as a coordinator, especially since their two seasons together mirror Fisher's overall tendencies. The lead back on these Fisher teams over these 12 seasons has averaged 316.6 touches per season. Given a volume of work on the ground and meaningful duties in the passing game, backs like White, Henry, Brown and now Stacy have all turned in top-20 fantasy seasons under Fisher, several of them doing so in incomplete seasons.
I went into this with an unabashed pro-Mason bend but sought more information and clarity past simply liking Mason's playmaking ability from college. It's become clear to me that Stacy is Fisher's lead horse, his "70 percent" guy. You would be wise to get Mason as insurance, but I do buy that this is Stacy's gig for 2014.
It's also become clear to me that while Stacy is not a special player per se, it's indeed true that he doesn't have to be to successfully fulfill his duties for his real and fantasy teams alike. There is indeed a point when it's worthy to take a 300-touch back, and it's not too far past Stacy's current ADP for me, firmly in the third round as a trustworthy RB2.

HacheMan · Aug 5, 2014

[h=1]Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT]

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I would bet New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is a blast at parties. I mean, I've heard stories and it doesn't seem like much of a stretch that this gregarious, attention-seeking fellow who once appeared on a reality dating show would be lots of fun to hang out with. The problem, for our reasonable purposes, is he's just not as much fun to own in a fantasy league anymore. It's true that Gronkowski could be as talented a pure receiving tight end as the league has ever seen, but here's a fun fact: We like our players -- fun or not -- to actually appear in football games. Like, perhaps give us 14-plus games per season. Sorry, but that sure doesn't seem like Gronkowski anymore.
So it is that, for the third consecutive year, this ridiculously talented player -- nobody really argues that point -- shows up on my "Do Not Draft" list, which is not to say I would not select him if the price were right, but who are we kidding? The price isn't right. That's the entire point. I can't even keep track of all the various maladies to body parts that have kept Gronk from playing, from the back to the arm to whatever, and this goes back into college, as well. He tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in a game this past December and had it repaired in January. Gronkowski claims he'll be ready for Week 1, which is awesome and optimistic and let's give him respect, but … OK, is that really realistic, and, even if it happens, how long until some other body part trips him and us up again?
My annual "Do Not Draft" list often gets taken out of context, so here's a brief explanation, if you will: I monitor/analyze the ESPN average live draft results and find players I wouldn't select close to the region in which they are going, for whatever reason. Fantasy sports are a value game as much as a statistical one, after all. With Gronk, I don't buy a 16-game season anytime soon, whether he competes in early September or not. He missed time in 2012. He missed more than half of last season when everyone seemed to think he'd be ready for Week 1. In the past, he has shown up on this annual blog entry more for the lack of draft-day value, as in he wasn't quite worth the high ADP praise spun his way. Well, the point here is he still isn't, but for a different reason.
The tight end position has been deep enough for years for standard formats to supply proper demand and also, likely more importantly, I'm using my top-20 picks on running backs and perhaps, if forced, a wide receiver. I'm not using a top-20 pick on a tight end, not ever. (Sorry, Jimmy Graham, as awesome as you are.) Gronk's leading this year’s list because of lack of durability first. I don’t want to draft more than one tight end, either. And even at pick 36 in ESPN ADP, that's way too generous for me. He missed my top 50. I just don't want to deal with it. I'll commit to a tight end in the 11th round instead, and if he's bad -- or Jared Cook after Week 1 -- I'll find another one.

Ultimately, there are myriad ways to construct a successful fantasy team, and my way certainly isn't for everyone. I acknowledge the upside with not only Gronkowski but many of the players on this year's list, but it still comes down to value, and I don't want to end up with Steven Jackson or DeAngelo Williams as my top running back. It's for this reason that I don't commit a top-20 draft pick to any quarterback, yetPeyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are going in the first round. Good for you, I suppose, but I'll take Colin Kaepernickin the seventh round every time. Graham won't be on my teams, either, unless he slips a few rounds, which he will not. And I don't see much statistical separation moving forward in the top-five wide receivers, which is why, if I'm picking late in the first round, I'll simply gloss over awesome Calvin Johnson for a running back, even one who comes with significantly more risk, and get a WR1 later. So here are other players who are flex-eligible, from a general sense that I'm not likely to be drafting based on how others perceive them, and I'll combine them with a player being selected later whom I like more for perspective.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Most people probably think that his only issue last year was the torn labrum in his shoulder that shut him down before Week 8, and that now, by all indications, he's healthy. The truth is Martin was having an underwhelming season, especially in relation to his lofty top-five status from draft day (ahead of Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy!). Through seven weeks, Martin was 21st among running backs in standard fantasy points. It's certainly worth pointing out that his rookie year featured one of the great fantasy performances ever (272 total yards, 4 touchdowns in Week 8 at Oakland) and other than that, not a ton else. Martin is a fine player. I rank him among my top 20 running backs (although even that might change soon). But between questions of his ability, consistency and health and rumors of what really could be a backfield time share with others, I can't make him a top-10 guy. Thus, I'm not drafting him there. Whom I like more: I think it's misguided to select Martin over Montee Ball of the Denver Broncos. Compare the offenses. Compare the upside. Compare the players, really. Ball's in my top 10.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals: Better to get out a year too early than a year too late. Fitzgerald, like Martin, is hardly a bad player. But it's been three seasons since Fitzgerald caught 1,000 yards worth of passes, while, on the other side of the field, Michael Floyd achieved this last season, and with many of the yards coming on vertical passes. Fitzgerald finished last season 16th among wide receivers in standard scoring, buoyed by the 10 touchdowns. He was 25th in yards. I don't see his numbers improving as he hits 30. I won't take Floyd over him, but two or three rounds later, you bet! Whom I like more:Keenan Allen is on the upswing. Target fellows who can still improve.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins: It's the system, not the player, and Jackson was unceremoniously dumped from the Philadelphia Eagles’ system that provided him opportunity for his best season and made quarterback Nick Foles into Joe Montana (statistically, for one magical year). Jackson can run. He can get deep. He sure can talk. AndRobert Griffin III can make things happen with him. But Jackson hadn't caught 65 passes in any season before 2013. He totaled six touchdowns in 2011-12. And he's not an Eagle anymore. The system he's in now won't help him. Pierre Garcon will be targeted a lot more. The running game will be effective. This is a 60-catch guy again, being drafted like a star. I don't see it. Whom I like more: Jeremy Maclin, essentially replacing Jackson in Philly, will now enjoy his career season, and at a far greater discount than his former teammate. It's the system, silly.

Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts: What exactly impressed everyone about this guy as a rookie, other than the 11 rushing touchdowns he scored, largely thanks to opportunity? He averaged 3.6 yards per carry. The Browns had nothing else and still gave him away for a draft pick. The Colts are stuck with an overrated player not capable of fulfilling expectations unless he's scoring tons of touchdowns. Quarterback Andrew Luck likes to run for scores, as well, and he's going to throw many touchdown passes. Richardson gets somewhat of a break in ADP because he gets the entire offseason/summer to learn Indy's plays, meet the team and start over, and I get that he's not being selected among the top 20 at his position, but I still don't want him. He's going to end up rising into the top 20 at his position on draft day because Vick Ballard is done for the season and Ahmad Bradshaw is made of glass, but this isn't Gronkowski; the upside is limited. Whom I like more: Name a player. How about Toby Gerhart, for one. He also doesn't have competition, but I see upside there. Joique Bell has competition and upside, too.
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks: Yep, I saw him score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. So did a billion others. It was magical. It was also the first big play he had made in a really long time. I'd like to invest in Harvin if the price were right, but it's not going to be. It hasn't been for years. This is a clear run-first team, and the player has a dubious history of health, not to mention he's never actually had a 1,000-yard receiving season or scored more than six receiving touchdowns. Isn't this the definition of fantasy insanity, continuing to value highly an overrated statistical option annually? Whom I like more: The young, exciting, versatile fantasy monster back in Minnesota, where Harvin once teased us, is going to be a star. Invest in Cordarrelle Patterson. Now.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Miami Dolphins: He's not in Denver anymore. I wouldn't get too excited about his new colleague Lamar Miller, who probably starts at running back for this team, but Moreno is dealing with knee woes, and the difference in Peyton Manning andRyan Tannehill is extreme. The way defenses deal with Tannehill is also extremely different. Good luck with linebackers, Knowshon. It's not going to be a fun season statistically, and I'd say we all know that, but his ADP isn't showing it. Whom I like more: There's no upside here. Instead of using a top-100 pick on a player on the downswing, check back in Denver at who could explode like Moreno did should Ball fail. It's C.J. Anderson! That's an upside pick and one that costs considerably less.

HacheMan · Aug 7, 2014

[h=1]The 7 habits of highly effective drafters[/h][h=3]A successful fantasy season begins with an effective draft strategy[/h]
By Matthew Berry | ESPN The Magazine

STEPHEN COVEY'S The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People was, by any measure, a monster of a book. With more than 20 million copies sold, the self-help guide spawned many other titles, including The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Families, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Teensand the rare misstep The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Hoarders.

From happy kids to effective couples, there is no group that doesn't have a 7 Habits written for it. No group except, of course, fantasy football drafters. So it is with that glaring omission and a magazine deadline in mind that I went through the millions of teams that played on ESPN.com  over the past two years, focusing on those that made the playoffs. After sifting through that data, and reliving my own 30 years of playing, I now present to you: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Drafters.[h=2]1. Spend a ton of time preparing.[/h]When you draft, you build a roster, right? So let's start there. Over the past two years, playoff teams and last-place teams had virtually identically balanced rosters (see Chart A). In general, everyone has five running backs and wide receivers, a kicker, a defense and either one or two quarterbacks and one or two tight ends.
[h=4]Chart A[/h]

Position	Average fantasy roster, playoff teams, last two years	Average fantasy roster, last-place teams, last two years
QB	1.99	2.03
RB	5.02	5.00
WR	5.04	5.06
TE	1.62	1.58
D/ST	1.25	1.24
K	1.08	1.10

Which just very simply means: If all rosters are constructed the same way, it's all about getting that slight edge at each position. And that's where putting in the time makes all the difference. Because of fantasy analysts who compile rankings and write sleeper columns, because of Twitter and TV shows like Fantasy Football Now, everyone knows everything. There are no secret sleepers anymore. There's no hiding injury updates from your league mates.
But all that information also creates a lot of noise to filter in order to determine what is actually important. And that takes time. Lots of it.
Effective drafters read tons; study all the stats and trends; watch as much preseason football as they can (at least when relevant players are in); listen to the news conferences of head coaches and coordinators; follow a lot of Twitter feeds; do mock drafts and the late sleeper search; look at past draft results of their own leagues; and study for their draft like it's a bar exam. It's very simple.
Like every other part of life, what you put in is what you get out.
[h=2]2. Nail the first two rounds.[/h]In the past two years, a player picked in the first round averaged 191.8 fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring). In the same time frame, a player picked in the second round averaged 184.3 fantasy points. Pretty close, right? But when you get to the third round? Big drop-off (see Chart B). There is no bigger production drop-off between pairs of rounds than the difference between the first two rounds and Rounds 3 and 4.
[h=4]Chart B[/h]

Round	Average points scored by picks from each round in weeks 1-13 since 2012
1	191.8
2	184.3
3	164.0
4	148.0
5	142.3
6	135.7
7	131.7
8	119.9
9	109.2
10	101.8
11	98.6
12	99.5
13	98.8
14	97.3
15	98.3
16	97.7

The first two rounds are crucial. Over the past two years, playoff teams scored, on average, 1,237 points in the first 13 weeks. So if 95 points a week is what you need to make the playoffs, those first two rounds represent a whopping 30 percent of your total.
It's not the place to get cute, to try for "upside" or to reach. You can't ignore injury history, and you can't just assume you're guaranteed a good player. Ask anyone who drafted Doug Martin or Ray Rice in the first round last year.
You need as sure of a thing as you can get, which means you need to spend a good percentage of your draft prep making sure you nail the first two picks.
[h=2]3. Trust yourself above all else.[/h]If you're drafting online, chances are you'll have 60 seconds to make a pick. If you're drafting with your buddies, you'll have more time but more distractions. Either way, having a strong opinion about every player is key. You like a guy, but your ranks say don't take him ... and as you waver, you're dead. You need to know in your gut that this is the right pick. The easiest way to do this is by doing your own ranking sheet. After you've done a lot of research and feel you have a good handle on players, reordering the top 150 is a worthwhile exercise; it will force you to have specific opinions on every player. Which ones are injury-prone? Which ones are streaky versus consistent? Which ones have a chance to blow up? Which ones are on the downside of their careers? Those questions are all important.
Once you have your ranks, grab five or six of the more popular cheat sheets (including the cheat sheet of the site you're drafting on!) and average them together, noting the average rank, highest rank and lowest rank for every player. Comparing that list with your ranks will give you a sense of which players you're more likely to get and which players you're not willing to draft that high. And if you don't like the team you wind up with, redo your ranks.
My friend Joe Bryant of FootballGuys.com invented something called value-based drafting, or VBD. In essence, it's a way to show how a player compares with a replacement-level player (someone you could have taken off the waiver wire at any time) at the same position. It then compares all the positions (QB, RB, WR, etc.) to one another. My colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft ran an interesting study, pulling the ESPN.com ADP, then comparing it with the end-of-season VBD. He found that 41 percent -- almost half -- of the top 100 drafted players finished five or more rounds below their average draft position. In other words, last year, four of every 10 consensus picks probably didn't come close to returning value. Remember that when ranking your own players. Don't be afraid to be bold, to go against the grain when compiling, reviewing and finalizing your ranks. Because the group-think ranks are way off almost half the time. It's your team; listen to your inner GM.
[h=2]4. Have no absolutes.[/h]Every player has a value. The biggest mistake a drafter can make is locking in to one player, one way or the other: "First round, I'm going Calvin Johnson, no matter what." Or, "I'm never owning Maurice Jones-Drew again! Dead to me."
I have no issue if you leave the draft owning Calvin Johnson and having MJD nowhere near your roster. That's fine. But understand that every player is slotted for multiple reasons. The concerns about MJD's health and the effectiveness of Oakland's offense are built into his ranking. The amazing numbers of Calvin Johnson are built into his as well.
I took a look at what every league champion did with every pick from every possible draft slot last season. From pick 18, for example, the league champions went QB 28 percent of the time (probably Peyton Manning, ADP of 16.5); they went RB 37 percent of the time (probably Matt Forte, ADP of 18.2); and WR 33 percent of the time (probably Dez Bryant, ADP of 18.1). Lots of different ways to go at pick 18 and still win the title. The point is, when you went to pick 18 last year, if Forte and Dez were gone but you were locked into "I'm not taking a QB until late!" you missed out on Peyton. And you probably lost. Or conversely, you were desperate for a running back and Forte was gone, so instead of Peyton or Dez, you grabbed the next-highest-ranked running back and you got Stevan Ridley (ADP of 22.7). Effective drafters don't chase a position or get locked into a singular focus.
[h=2]5. Ignore the unproven, cliche and hearsay.[/h]At its fundamental level, fantasy football is about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win. There will be injuries, lying coaches and unpredictable plays. Bad luck, dumb penalties and guys stepping out of bounds on the 1-yard line, none of which you can control. So the best you can do is figure out what is most likely to happen, play the odds and hope for the best.
Playoff teams on ESPN.com consistently went with the highest percentage play in all their draft decisions -- which means ignoring unproven facts or clichés. Among the things we here at ESPN Fantasy have debunked over the years:
1. The third-year WR breakout. Here are some of the wideouts who had their third season in the NFL last year: Doug Baldwin, Andrew Hawkins, Denarius Moore, Greg Little, Leonard Hankerson, Jerrel Jernigan, Torrey Smith, Cecil Shorts III and Austin Pettis. Meanwhile, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery and Michael Floyd were second-year players, Keenan Allen was a rookie and Antonio Brown was in his fourth season.
2. Strength of schedule matters when selecting a player. Among the defenses some fantasy websites wanted your running back to avoid a year ago at this time were New England's and Chicago's. Both ended up being among the easiest defenses to run against.
3. You want a quarterback on a team that will always be trailing or has a bad defense so he'll have to throw a lot. Last year Matt Ryan had more pass attempts when trailing than any QB in the NFL. He was drafted, on average, as the sixth QB and finished 14th at the position. And nobody thought the Falcons would lose that many games. Second in pass attempts when losing? Chad Henne, who went undrafted and finished tied for 25th in points.
4. Now that this team got a second stud wide receiver, the star wideout will lose targets. I don't know. People were pretty happy owning either or both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery last year, or Roddy White and Julio Jones the previous season.
5. You want a running back on a good team because the team will be leading a lot and grind out the clock with its RB. Well ... sometimes. Of the top 10 running backs in fantasy scoring last season, five (LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews) were among the league leaders in rushes while winning. Likewise there were five (Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Forte, Eddie Lacy, McCoy) among the leaders in rushes while trailing. Yes, McCoy is on both lists. Also on the list of rushing leaders while ahead in the score: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Trent Richardson and DeAngelo Williams, none of whom was a top-20 running back last season. And all this, of course, assumes you know which teams will be good and which will be bad. Remember what you thought of the Texans and Chiefs last August?
6. It's a contract year! How'd that work out last season for owners of Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden? Emmanuel Sanders set the world on fire for you? I'm cherry-picking examples, but that's the point. You can cherry-pick examples to prove any side you want.
Search for "NFL best shape of his career 2013" to see who had that preseason buzz of being healthy a year ago. First two fantasy-relevant player names to appear when I did that search? Ben Tate and Kenny Britt. Among the preseason hype from beat reporters and coaches: Mark Ingram was ready to bust out, Jones-Drew was healthy and motivated, Alfred Morris would be a big part of the passing game, Daryl Richardson was emerging as the go-to guy for the Rams, Ronnie Hillman was the Broncos running back you wanted. ... Effective drafters don't fall for hype or anything they can't verify themselves.
[h=2]6. Know that every pick matters.[/h]Sometimes I see drafters get more loose as the draft goes on, throwing strategy out the window. "What the hell, it's the 12th round, what do I care."
Last year the 12th round was where Alshon Jeffery and Josh Gordon were taken on ESPN.com. No pick should be wasted. You can never ease up. You need laserlike focus and deep research and mock-draft prep for every single round. Last year Antonio Brown and DeSean Jackson went in the seventh/eighth range. So did Ahmad Bradshaw. Which one would you want? Giovani Benard went in the eighth, the same round as DeAngelo Williams. Greg Olsen and Sidney Rice both went in the ninth. Which would you rather have had? Le'Veon Bell, Vick Ballard and Lance Moore all went in the 10th/11th range, while Fred Jackson and Vincent Brown were among your choices in the 13th. Philip Rivers and Knowshon Moreno were 14th-rounders. And mixed among all those defenses and kickers, Julius Thomas was picked in the 14th and Danny Woodhead in the 15th.
Over the past two years, the 99th pick in the draft was worth an average of 99.5 points; the 135th pick (almost four full rounds later) was worth an average of 98.5 points.
Every. Pick. Matters.
[h=2]7. Remember: The draft is just the first step to success.[/h]In 2012, the four teams with the fewest number of roster changes from draft day to the end of the season finished 10th, 8th, 9th and 6th, respectively. In 2013, the four teams with the fewest roster changes finished 10th, 9th, 8th and 7th.
To put it another way, in the past two years, playoff teams had, on average, only 57 percent of their original roster left at the end of the season. Meanwhile, the last-place team had 62 percent of its team left and the bottom four teams had 60 percent left.

HacheMan · Aug 10, 2014

[h=1]Norv Turner's impact on tight ends[/h][h=3]Turner stretches defenses, while another coordinator boosts TEs at least as much[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Norv Turner is renowned for being a tight-end-friendly coach -- he's widely credited forJordan Cameron's breakthrough in 2013 -- and it's one reason many fantasy analysts and owners expect a similar step forward in 2014 from Kyle Rudolph, the starting tight end for Turner's new team, the Minnesota Vikings.
The truth in the numbers, however, is that Turner's influence is somewhat exaggerated, perhaps a greater product of the personnel at his disposal.
In Turner's 29 seasons coaching in the NFL, six of them as a wide receivers coach (Los Angeles Rams, 1985-90), eight as an offensive coordinator (Dallas Cowboys, 1991-93; San Diego Chargers, 2001; Miami Dolphins, 2002-03; San Francisco 49ers, 2006; and Cleveland Browns, 2013) and 15 as a head coach (Washington Redskins, 1994-2000; Oakland Raiders, '04-05; and San Diego Chargers, '07-12), a Turner-coached tight end managed a 100-point fantasy season six times, or a seasonal per-game average of at least 6.0 on six occasions.
Antonio Gates was responsible for five of them. Cameron had the other.
Taking them as a collective group -- and using fantasy points per game for these purposes -- Turner-coached tight ends have averaged 0.9 points per game more than the NFL's average for a single team during the entirety of his coaching career. The details of this, which include his year-by-year breakdowns, are available in the table at column's end. Meanwhile, in the past five seasons, perhaps a more representative sample due to the league's increasingly offensive focus on the position, Turner's tight ends averaged 2.6 fantasy points more than the league's average.
To put these numbers into context, consider that one of the 11 other new-to-his-team offensive coordinators has stats -- both career and in the past 10 seasons -- that are as good as and arguably better than Turner's: Gary Kubiak of the Baltimore Ravens.
During his 19-year NFL coaching career, 11 of them as an offensive coordinator (Denver Broncos, 1995-2005, which included quarterbacks-coach duties during his first eight seasons) and eight as a head coach (Houston Texans, 2006-13), Kubiak-coached tight ends have averaged 2.7 fantasy points per game more than the NFL's average. And in the past five seasons, Kubiak's tight ends have averaged 2.6 fantasy points per game more ... an effectively identical rate to Turner's (within decimal points).
Strategically speaking, though, Kubiak seems to have done more with less, not to mention that he has distinctly made the tight end more of a focal point of his offense. In the past three seasons, for example, examine their teams' tight end usage patterns:
Kubiak's teams: 334 two-TE sets, 444 targets, 61 red zone targets
Turner's teams: 171 two-TE sets, 371 targets, 55 red zone targets
Average NFL team: 148 two-TE sets, 339 targets, 47 red zone targets
Now consider the personnel at each coach's disposal: 53 percent of the tight end snaps for Turner's teams during that three-year span went to Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron;Owen Daniels was the leader for Kubiak's team, with just 37 percent. Few would put Daniels -- or Garrett Graham, who ranked second -- on par, skills-wise, with Gates or Cameron. Kubiak has exhibited greater reliance on tight ends overall, on two tight end sets and on tight ends in critical situations, and he's gotten more out of the personnel he has had at the position.
So why isn't Kubiak -- and therefore his tight end Dennis Pitta -- getting as much attention for this as Turner and Rudolph are?
Perhaps it's the freshness of Cameron in fantasy owners' minds or the elite personnel Turner has recently coached, inflating his cumulative numbers. But what's being misread about Turner's offenses is his reliance on downfield passing, which suits the wide receivers often as much as the tight ends. To that end, Turner's Chargers teams, during his final five seasons as head coach, averaged from wide receivers the league's highest rate of air yards per attempt (14.3) and yards per reception (16.2) and had the 10th-most catches of 20-plus yards (184). Turner's Browns in 2013, meanwhile, ranked sixth in yards per reception (14.2) and eighth in 20-yard catches (39) and produced fantasy's No. 1 wide receiver, Josh Gordon (221 points despite two missed games).
Perhaps it's that Daniels, Kubiak's most productive pass-catching tight end during his Texan days, made the trip east with Kubiak this offseason, lending itself to a target-pie concern between him and Pitta. At 31 and having missed 26 games over the past five seasons due to injury, however, Daniels better fits the mold of the stay-at-home blocking tight end that Kubiak loved during his Houston days. Make no mistake: Pitta is the Ravens' pass-catcher, and he might be the best one he has had on the roster since ... Daniels in 2009, before he began his string of injuries.
Kubiak's offenses also tend to be more conservative at the wide receiver position, relying on shorter-range tosses with a higher rate of completion. Sure enough, in his final five seasons with the Texans, his team had the third-highest catch rate among wide receivers (63.7 percent) but ranked 23rd in air yards per attempt (10.9). Those tendencies play directly into the hands of Pitta, and they make him an especially attractive option in PPR formats.
Finally, returning to Turner, it's possible that what's being missed upon his arrival in Minnesota is his potential impact on Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson, if you recall, managed a 92nd-ranked 1.53 vertical targets per game last season and had a below-league-average 8.4 air yards per attempt during the season's final eight weeks, when he was performing at his fantasy best. That has perhaps deflated his stock entering 2014, because it ignores his speed and ability to adhere nicely to Turner's downfield trend. Could it be that it's Pattersonand Pitta who benefit most from the Turner and Kubiak moves, rather than Rudolph and the Ravens' running game?
Certainly it's possible, the data saying probably so.
[h=3]Norv Turner's impact on tight ends[/h]"Norv" is the average fantasy points per game scored by his team's TEs (all who were on the roster that season), "NFL" is the entire league's average fantasy points per game (FPTS/G) by TEs, "Diff." is the difference between the two.

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Year</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Role</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Norv</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">NFL</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Diff.</center>	Leading TE	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/AVG</center>
2013	Cle	OC	9.4	7.4	2.1	Jordan Cameron	127/8.5
2012	SD	HC	7.5	6.8	0.7	Antonio Gates	89/5.9
2011	SD	HC	8.7	7.0	1.7	Antonio Gates	115/8.8
2010	SD	HC	10.7	6.3	4.4	Antonio Gates	134/13.4
2009	SD	HC	10.3	6.4	3.9	Antonio Gates	156/9.8
2008	SD	HC	8.0	5.2	2.8	Antonio Gates	109/6.8
2007	SD	HC	9.8	5.8	4.0	Antonio Gates	145/9.1
2006	SF	OC	4.9	5.2	-0.2	Vernon Davis	40/4.0
2005	Oak	HC	3.8	5.1	-1.4	Courtney Anderson	44/3.1
2004	Oak	HC	4.9	5.5	-0.6	Doug Jolley	37/2.3
2003	Mia	OC	5.3	4.4	0.9	Randy McMichael	70/4.4
2002	Mia	OC	5.6	4.4	1.2	Randy McMichael	64/4.0
2001	SD	OC	4.1	4.4	-0.3	Freddie Jones	58/4.1
2000	Wsh	HC	3.1	4.3	-1.3	Stephen Alexander	49/3.1
1999	Wsh	HC	2.9	4.4	-1.5	Stephen Alexander	43/2.9
1998	Wsh	HC	4.9	4.5	0.4	Stephen Alexander	54/3.6
1997	Wsh	HC	4.3	4.7	-0.4	Jamie Asher	47/2.9
1996	Wsh	HC	5.3	4.0	1.3	Jamie Asher	65/4.1
1995	Wsh	HC	3.2	4.2	-1.1	Coleman Bell	20/1.8
1994	Wsh	HC	4.0	4.3	-0.3	Ethan Horton	29/1.8
1993	Dal	OC	3.3	4.1	-0.9	Jay Novacek	46/2.9
1992	Dal	OC	5.8	3.2	2.6	Jay Novacek	91/5.7
1991	Dal	OC	6.2	3.5	2.7	Jay Novacek	80/5.0
Totals			5.8	4.9	0.9

[h=3]Gary Kubiak's impact on tight ends[/h]"Gary" is the average fantasy points per game scored by his team's TEs (all who were on the roster that season), "NFL" is the entire league's average fantasy points per game (FPTS/G) by TEs, "Diff." is the difference between the two.

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Year</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Role</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Gary</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">NFL</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Diff.</center> Lead <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/AVG</center>
2013 Hou HC 9.0 7.4 1.6 Garrett Graham 76/5.8
2012 Hou HC 11.4 6.8 4.6 Owen Daniels 100/6.7
2011 Hou HC 11.1 7.0 4.1 Owen Daniels 80/5.3
2010 Hou HC 8.0 6.3 1.7 Joel Dreessen 68/4.3
2009 Hou HC 7.3 6.4 0.9 Owen Daniels 78/9.8
2008 Hou HC 5.9 5.2 0.6 Owen Daniels 90/5.6
2007 Hou HC 6.5 5.8 0.7 Owen Daniels 82/5.1
2006 Hou HC 5.3 5.2 0.1 Owen Daniels 60/4.3
2005 Den OC 4.8 5.1 -0.3 Jeb Putzier 42/2.6
2004 Den OC 6.8 5.5 1.3 Jeb Putzier 63/3.9
2003 Den OC 8.3 4.4 3.8 Shannon Sharpe 119/7.9
2002 Den OC/QB 7.3 4.4 2.8 Shannon Sharpe 82/6.3
2001 Den OC/QB 10.1 4.4 5.7 Desmond Clark 82/5.1
2000 Den OC/QB 8.5 4.3 4.2 Dwayne Carswell 61/3.8
1999 Den OC/QB 6.7 4.4 2.3 Byron Chamberlain 57/3.6
1998 Den OC/QB 8.4 4.5 4.0 Shannon Sharpe 130/8.1
1997 Den OC/QB 8.6 4.7 3.9 Shannon Sharpe 124/7.8
1996 Den OC/QB 11.0 4.0 7.1 Shannon Sharpe 160/10.7
1995 Den OC/QB 7.1 4.2 2.8 Shannon Sharpe 96/7.4
Totals 8.0 5.3 2.7

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<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Year</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Role</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Gary</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">NFL</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Diff.</center>	Lead	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/AVG</center>
2013	Hou	HC	9.0	7.4	1.6	Garrett Graham	76/5.8
2012	Hou	HC	11.4	6.8	4.6	Owen Daniels	100/6.7
2011	Hou	HC	11.1	7.0	4.1	Owen Daniels	80/5.3
2010	Hou	HC	8.0	6.3	1.7	Joel Dreessen	68/4.3
2009	Hou	HC	7.3	6.4	0.9	Owen Daniels	78/9.8
2008	Hou	HC	5.9	5.2	0.6	Owen Daniels	90/5.6
2007	Hou	HC	6.5	5.8	0.7	Owen Daniels	82/5.1
2006	Hou	HC	5.3	5.2	0.1	Owen Daniels	60/4.3
2005	Den	OC	4.8	5.1	-0.3	Jeb Putzier	42/2.6
2004	Den	OC	6.8	5.5	1.3	Jeb Putzier	63/3.9
2003	Den	OC	8.3	4.4	3.8	Shannon Sharpe	119/7.9
2002	Den	OC/QB	7.3	4.4	2.8	Shannon Sharpe	82/6.3
2001	Den	OC/QB	10.1	4.4	5.7	Desmond Clark	82/5.1
2000	Den	OC/QB	8.5	4.3	4.2	Dwayne Carswell	61/3.8
1999	Den	OC/QB	6.7	4.4	2.3	Byron Chamberlain	57/3.6
1998	Den	OC/QB	8.4	4.5	4.0	Shannon Sharpe	130/8.1
1997	Den	OC/QB	8.6	4.7	3.9	Shannon Sharpe	124/7.8
1996	Den	OC/QB	11.0	4.0	7.1	Shannon Sharpe	160/10.7
1995	Den	OC/QB	7.1	4.2	2.8	Shannon Sharpe	96/7.4
Totals			8.0	5.3	2.7

Fantasy Football News 2014/15

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